The Political Group · South Carolina 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves a South Carolina race.

8 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
SC-07
John Vincent vs. Russell Fry
14% → 53%+39 pts13,681$7,372
21,258 households
Brief ›
South Carolina U.S. Senate
Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham
35% → 51%+16 pts35,017$14,869
57,232 households
Brief ›
SC-01
Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt
2% → 7%+5 pts41,373$7,573
21,837 households
Brief ›
SC-02
Zyon Khalifa vs. Joe Wilson
1% → 3%+2 pts43,670$9,740
30,258 households
Brief ›
SC-03
Eunice Lehmacher vs. Sheri Biggs
0% → 0%+0 pts107,182$5,004
11,215 households
Brief ›
SC-04
Courtney McClain vs. William Timmons
<1% → <1%+0 pts55,963$7,270
19,560 households
Brief ›
SC-05
Mallory Dittmer vs. Wes Climer
<1% → <1%+0 pts63,714$6,303
15,896 households
Brief ›
SC-06
John Peterson vs. Jim Clyburn
<1% → <1%+0 pts51,065$7,568
21,821 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · SC-07 · John Vincent (D) vs. Russell Fry (R) · incumbent

Vincent can win. The plan uses 39 percent of what history allows.

Odds today14%
With the plan53%
Net votes to find13,681
Call program$7,372

Where

  1. Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County) +328
    Starting line Fry +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
  2. Dunes #1 (Horry County) +309
    Starting line Fry +23. 4.1% split their ticket.
  3. Socastee #3 (Horry County) +305
    Starting line Fry +18. 5.1% split their ticket.
  4. Pawley's Island No. 2 (Georgetown County) +297
    Starting line Vincent +7. 4.4% split their ticket.
  5. Pawley's Island No. 1 (Georgetown County) +297
    Starting line Fry +12. 4.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,653
    32,832 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Fry, plus the 22 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +1,630
    At least 28,545 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Vincent's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +82
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Vincent's way.

What has to be true

  1. Vincent wins 19 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Fry.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 39 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    334 precincts, slope 1.018, R² 0.995, 34 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -21,273 to 23,288
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Vincent $62,378 · Fry $1,038,817
  • Call program
    21,258 households, 63,775 dials, about 3,342 live conversations and 1,140 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · South Carolina U.S. Senate · Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R) · incumbent

Andrews can win. The plan uses 23 percent of what history allows.

Odds today35%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find35,017
Call program$14,869

Where

  1. Charleston County +12,115
    Starting line Andrews +22. 13,836 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 62,042 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Richland County +7,815
    Starting line Andrews +48. 9,594 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 55,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Lexington County +4,049
    Starting line Graham +17. 7,941 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 47,625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Greenville County +2,272
    Starting line Graham +8. 12,799 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 86,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Berkeley County +1,984
    Starting line even. 5,483 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 41,473 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 92% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +27,682
    119,402 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Graham, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +8,478
    At least 244,342 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Andrews's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +608
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Andrews's way.

What has to be true

  1. Andrews wins 12 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Graham.
  2. In the precincts Andrews's side carries in Richland County and Charleston County, 8 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 23 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    2,321 precincts, slope 1.016, R² 0.969, 323 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -139,631 to 144,707
  • Cash on hand
    Andrews $4,119,295 · Graham $251,431
  • Call program
    57,232 households, 171,695 dials, about 8,997 live conversations and 3,068 voter IDs, at $0.2598 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-01 · Nancy Lacore (D) vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan7%
Net votes to find41,373
Call program$7,573

Where

  1. Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County) +170
    Starting line Honeycutt +23. 10.3% split their ticket.
  2. Johns Island 2 (Charleston County) +164
    Starting line Honeycutt +5. 9.5% split their ticket.
  3. Johns Island 3A (Charleston County) +155
    Starting line Honeycutt +7. 10.0% split their ticket.
  4. Mt. Pleasant 33 (Charleston County) +123
    Starting line Honeycutt +31. 8.2% split their ticket.
  5. Mt. Pleasant 39 (Charleston County) +119
    Starting line Honeycutt +28. 7.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 12% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,994
    9,994 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Honeycutt today.
  • Mobilize +966
    At least 10,586 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lacore's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +376
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lacore's way.

Plus a 10.5-point national shift (30,036 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Lacore wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Honeycutt.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward Lacore's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    375 precincts, slope 0.988, R² 0.970, 50 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -63,189 to 3,454
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Lacore $412,020 · Honeycutt $78,533
  • Call program
    21,837 households, 65,512 dials, about 3,433 live conversations and 1,171 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-02 · Zyon Khalifa (D) vs. Joe Wilson (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan3%
Net votes to find43,670
Call program$9,740

Where

  1. Longcreek (Richland County) +195
    Starting line Khalifa +18. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Pontiac 2 (Richland County) +191
    Starting line Khalifa +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,433 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Ridge View 2 (Richland County) +171
    Starting line Khalifa +55. 2.7% split their ticket. About 778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) +169
    Starting line Khalifa +61. 2.3% split their ticket. About 716 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Ridge View 1 (Richland County) +155
    Starting line Khalifa +56. 3.1% split their ticket. About 682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,200
    7,200 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wilson today.
  • Mobilize +3,548
    At least 28,711 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Khalifa's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +259
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Khalifa's way.

Plus a 13.1-point national shift (32,663 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Khalifa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wilson.
  2. In Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) and Pontiac 2 (Richland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.1 points toward Khalifa's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    302 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.992, 41 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,711 to -3,170
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Khalifa $724 · Wilson $182,912
  • Call program
    30,258 households, 90,773 dials, about 4,757 live conversations and 1,622 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-03 · Eunice Lehmacher (D) vs. Sheri Biggs (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.1-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find107,182
Call program$5,004

Where

  1. Walnut Springs (Greenville County) +88
    Starting line Biggs +34. 5.2% split their ticket.
  2. Stamp Creek (Oconee County) +73
    Starting line Biggs +36. 6.7% split their ticket.
  3. Neely Farms (Greenville County) +69
    Starting line Biggs +24. 6.1% split their ticket.
  4. Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County) +64
    Starting line Lehmacher +37. 2.1% split their ticket. About 428 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Clemson (Pickens County) +61
    Starting line Biggs +13. 8.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 12% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,048
    5,048 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Biggs today.
  • Mobilize +522
    At least 4,748 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lehmacher's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +493
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lehmacher's way.

Plus a 42.1-point national shift (101,119 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Lehmacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Biggs.
  2. In Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County) and Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 42.1 points toward Lehmacher's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    372 precincts, slope 0.991, R² 0.989, 53 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,104 to -73,344
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Lehmacher $17,699 · Biggs $218,741
  • Call program
    11,215 households, 33,644 dials, about 1,763 live conversations and 601 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-04 · Courtney McClain (D) vs. William Timmons (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find55,963
Call program$7,270

Where

  1. Greenville 8 (Greenville County) +159
    Starting line McClain +26. 6.9% split their ticket. About 1,126 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Greenville 5 (Greenville County) +132
    Starting line McClain +25. 9.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Greenville 19 (Greenville County) +122
    Starting line McClain +48. 7.7% split their ticket. About 545 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Greenville 7 (Greenville County) +115
    Starting line McClain +42. 6.2% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Greenville 29 (Greenville County) +109
    Starting line McClain +41. 1.6% split their ticket. About 747 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +6,190
    6,190 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Timmons today.
  • Mobilize +1,673
    At least 13,964 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McClain's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +701
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McClain's way.

Plus a 20.2-point national shift (47,399 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. McClain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Timmons.
  2. In Greenville 29 (Greenville County) and Greenville 8 (Greenville County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.2 points toward McClain's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    235 precincts, slope 1.003, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,095 to -19,965
  • Cash on hand
    McClain $1,207 · Timmons $77,225
  • Call program
    19,560 households, 58,679 dials, about 3,075 live conversations and 1,049 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-05 · Mallory Dittmer (D) vs. Wes Climer (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find63,714
Call program$6,303

Where

  1. Edgewood (York County) +199
    Starting line Dittmer +64. 1.5% split their ticket. About 850 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Rock Hill No. 3 (York County) +170
    Starting line Dittmer +73. 2.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Rock Hill No. 2 (York County) +134
    Starting line Dittmer +84. 1.0% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Fairgrounds (York County) +95
    Starting line Dittmer +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 496 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Rock Hill No. 6 (York County) +80
    Starting line Dittmer +56. 1.5% split their ticket. About 389 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,501
    4,501 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Climer today.
  • Mobilize +1,902
    At least 13,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dittmer's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +331
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dittmer's way.

Plus a 23.6-point national shift (56,979 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Dittmer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Climer.
  2. In Edgewood (York County) and Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.6 points toward Dittmer's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    361 precincts, slope 0.984, R² 0.993, 47 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -85,443 to -28,613
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Dittmer $74,508 · Climer $599,621
  • Call program
    15,896 households, 47,688 dials, about 2,499 live conversations and 852 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · SC-06 · John Peterson (R) vs. Jim Clyburn (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.9-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find51,065
Call program$7,568

Where

  1. Jordan (Clarendon County) +151
    Starting line Peterson +46. 4.1% split their ticket. About 745 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County) +127
    Starting line Peterson +1. 9.2% split their ticket.
  3. Saul Dam (Dorchester County) +116
    Starting line Peterson +37. 6.5% split their ticket. About 848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. St. Andrews 27 (Charleston County) +112
    Starting line Clyburn +15. 9.2% split their ticket.
  5. Margaritaville (Jasper County) +110
    Starting line Peterson +22. 3.2% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,477
    5,477 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clyburn today.
  • Mobilize +2,110
    At least 19,214 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Peterson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +510
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peterson's way.

Plus a 19.9-point national shift (42,968 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clyburn.
  2. In Jordan (Clarendon County) and Saul Dam (Dorchester County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 19.9 points toward Peterson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    438 precincts, slope 1.011, R² 0.993, 82 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,977 to -18,088
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Peterson n/a · Clyburn $1,634,793
  • Call program
    21,821 households, 65,462 dials, about 3,430 live conversations and 1,170 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.