South Carolina · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Nancy Lacore.

Honeycutt starts 14.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,336 net votes toward Lacore, a 4.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Lacore the one standing if one comes.

41,373

net votes between Lacore and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

14.4 pts

Honeycutt lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan7%

Net votes to find41,373

WhereMt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County), Johns Island 2 (Charleston County), Johns Island 3A (Charleston County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Honeycutt +14.4. Nancy Lacore needs 41,373 net votes. Odds 2% today, 7% with the plan.

The number

143,240 votes.

That is half of the 286,479 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lacore stands today, and what is missing:

121,313 Nancy Lacore baseline

162,686 Jenny Costa Honeycutt baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). Published 2026 polls for this race do not set this line. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 7% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Lacore wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Lacore short by 29,944.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,994

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,994

Who. 9,994 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Honeycutt today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lacore needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Honeycutt.

Mobilize

966

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,586

Who. At least 10,586 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lacore's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

376

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,074

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lacore's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,336 net votes against a gap of 41,373. Still 30,037 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 12% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +23. 10.3% split their ticket.
+170
02
Johns Island 2 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +5. 9.5% split their ticket.
+164
03
Johns Island 3A (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +7. 10.0% split their ticket.
+155
04
Mt. Pleasant 33 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +31. 8.2% split their ticket.
+123
05
Mt. Pleasant 39 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +28. 7.9% split their ticket.
+119
06
Mt. Pleasant 15 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +2. 12.3% split their ticket.
+103
07
Mt. Pleasant 27 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +18. 10.2% split their ticket.
+100
08
Mt. Pleasant 37 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +7. 8.4% split their ticket.
+99
09
Mt. Pleasant 12 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +3. 11.7% split their ticket.
+94
10
Mt. Pleasant 30 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +17. 12.6% split their ticket.
+91
11
Mt. Pleasant 17 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +16. 10.4% split their ticket.
+90
12
Daniel Island 4 (Berkeley County)persuade
Starting line Honeycutt +20. 9.1% split their ticket.
+81

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County) carries the most.

Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 170. It sits at Honeycutt +23 on our starting line, and 10.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Mt. Pleasant 30 (Charleston County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Mt. Pleasant 30 (Charleston County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Lacore has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Lacore had $412K in cash on hand to Honeycutt's $79K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 11,336 net votes. The gap is 41,373. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.0 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lacore's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 375
Slope: 0.988
R²: 0.970
Residual SD: 3.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 50

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lacore's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lacore, with Honeycutt, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,994 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 10,586 of them live where Lacore is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.0 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 23.7 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.1 points.

Lacore wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Honeycutt.
It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward Lacore's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

3,433 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 65,512 dials to 21,837 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

66K

dials across three attempts

3,433

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,573 at our published rates: 21,837 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Nancy Lacore (D)

Retired Navy vice admiral and naval aviator who served as the 16th Chief of Navy Reserve (2024 to 2025), leading more than 60,000 sailors, and as commandant of Naval District Washington (2022 to 2024). She is a graduate of the College of the Holy Cross and San Diego State University.

Cash on hand $412,020 and $2,279,585 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)

Charleston County Council member representing District 9, from James Island to Seabrook Island, since winning her seat in 2018, and a practicing attorney. On council she has focused on infrastructure and transportation.

Cash on hand $78,533 and $556,418 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Bill Reeside (L)

Retired nuclear engineer with a career of more than 40 years, including diplomatic nuclear work in North Korea in the 1990s, who builds and repairs homes with Habitat for Humanity. He and his wife have owned property in Edisto Beach since 2004.

Cash on hand $9,011 and $113,822 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Declared write-in

Clayton Cuteri (Ame)

Mount Pleasant engineer and entrepreneur whose work has included U.S. Navy contracting on drones and communications systems; he graduated from the University of Central Florida.

Cash on hand $221 and $443 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Honeycutt +14.4. Nancy Lacore needs 41,373 net votes. Odds 2% today, 7% with the plan.

Questions

Can Nancy Lacore win South Carolina's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 11,336 net votes against a gap of 41,373; the rest would take a 10.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Nancy Lacore needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County), Johns Island 2 (Charleston County), Johns Island 3A (Charleston County), Mt. Pleasant 33 (Charleston County), Mt. Pleasant 39 (Charleston County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Nancy Lacore need to persuade?

About 4,997 voters who lean Jenny Costa Honeycutt today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,994 persuadable voters leaning Jenny Costa Honeycutt.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.