Upset Brief · SC-02 · Zyon Khalifa (D) vs. Joe Wilson (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

1%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
43,670
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Longcreek (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +18. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +195
  2. 02
    Pontiac 2 (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,433 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +191
  3. 03
    Ridge View 2 (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +55. 2.7% split their ticket. About 778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +171
  4. 04
    Rice Creek 2 (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +61. 2.3% split their ticket. About 716 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +169
  5. 05
    Ridge View 1 (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +56. 3.1% split their ticket. About 682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +155
  6. 06
    Blythewood 3 (Richland County)
    Starting line Khalifa +33. 4.5% split their ticket. About 995 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +154

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,200 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wilson today.
    +7,200
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 28,711 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Khalifa's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,548
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Khalifa's way.
    +259

Plus a national shift of 13.1 points of margin (32,663 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Khalifa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wilson.
  2. In Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) and Pontiac 2 (Richland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.1 points toward Khalifa's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    302 precincts, R² 0.992, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,711 to -3,170 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Khalifa $724 cash on hand; Wilson $182,912.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,258 households, 90,773 dials, about 4,757 live conversations: an estimated $9,740 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,740 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.