South Carolina · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Zyon Khalifa.

Wilson starts 17.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,007 net votes toward Khalifa, a 4.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 13.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Khalifa the one standing if one comes.

43,670

net votes between Khalifa and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

17.5 pts

Wilson lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan3%

Net votes to find43,670

WhereLongcreek (Richland County), Pontiac 2 (Richland County), Ridge View 2 (Richland County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Wilson +17.6. Zyon Khalifa needs 44,202 net votes. Odds 1% today, 3% with the plan.

The number

124,637 votes.

That is half of the 249,273 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Khalifa stands today, and what is missing:

101,911 Zyon Khalifa baseline

145,581 Joe Wilson baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. 3% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Khalifa wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Khalifa short by 32,714.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,200

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,200

Who. 7,200 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wilson today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Khalifa needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Wilson.

Mobilize

3,548

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 28,711

Who. At least 28,711 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Khalifa's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

259

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 741

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Khalifa's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,007 net votes against a gap of 43,670. Still 32,663 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 13.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Longcreek (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +18. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+195
02
Pontiac 2 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,433 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+191
03
Ridge View 2 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +55. 2.7% split their ticket. About 778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+171
04
Rice Creek 2 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +61. 2.3% split their ticket. About 716 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+169
05
Ridge View 1 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +56. 3.1% split their ticket. About 682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+155
06
Blythewood 3 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +33. 4.5% split their ticket. About 995 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
07
Pontiac 1 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +25. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
08
Lake Carolina (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +28. 5.4% split their ticket. About 957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+142
09
Midway (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +70. 1.6% split their ticket. About 504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+132
10
Chalk Hill (Lexington County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +41. 3.4% split their ticket. About 765 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
11
Parkway 3 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +80. 2.3% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129
12
Parkway 1 (Richland County)mobilize
Starting line Khalifa +60. 3.8% split their ticket. About 479 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+123

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Longcreek (Richland County) carries the most.

Longcreek (Richland County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 195. It sits at Khalifa +18 on our starting line, and 5.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) is a turnout target.

Khalifa's side leads Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) by about 61 points on our starting line, and it cast about 716 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 151 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Wilson had $183K in cash on hand to Khalifa's under $1,000. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 11,007 net votes. The gap is 43,670. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.4 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Khalifa's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 302
Slope: 0.994
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 3.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Khalifa's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Khalifa, with Wilson, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,200 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 28,711 of them live where Khalifa is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.9 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 23.3 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 14.4 points.

Khalifa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wilson.
In Rice Creek 2 (Richland County) and Pontiac 2 (Richland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 13.1 points toward Khalifa's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,757 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 90,773 dials to 30,258 households, before the last ballot is cast.

30K

households on the target list

91K

dials across three attempts

4,757

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,740 at our published rates: 30,258 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Zyon Khalifa (D)

Aiken County native who joined the U.S. Air Force Reserve in 2020 and served in air transportation with the 38th Aerial Port Squadron at Joint Base Charleston. A former University of South Carolina track athlete, he earned a bachelor's degree in business administration from USC in 2023 and a law degree from Southern University Law Center, and spent part of his teenage years in foster care.

Cash on hand $724 and $19,296 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Joe Wilson (R)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2001, an assistant Republican whip and member of the House Republican Policy Committee, and previously a state senator for District 23 (1985 to 2001). He is an attorney.

Cash on hand $182,912 and $861,105 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Dayna Alane Smith (W)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Wilson +17.6. Zyon Khalifa needs 44,202 net votes. Odds 1% today, 3% with the plan.

Questions

Can Zyon Khalifa win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 11,007 net votes against a gap of 43,670; the rest would take a 13.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Zyon Khalifa needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Longcreek (Richland County), Pontiac 2 (Richland County), Ridge View 2 (Richland County), Rice Creek 2 (Richland County), Ridge View 1 (Richland County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Zyon Khalifa need to persuade?

About 3,600 voters who lean Joe Wilson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,200 persuadable voters leaning Joe Wilson.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.