Upset Brief · SC-03 · Eunice Lehmacher (D) vs. Sheri Biggs (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
107,182
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Walnut Springs (Greenville County)
    Starting line Biggs +34. 5.2% split their ticket.
    +88
  2. 02
    Stamp Creek (Oconee County)
    Starting line Biggs +36. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +73
  3. 03
    Neely Farms (Greenville County)
    Starting line Biggs +24. 6.1% split their ticket.
    +69
  4. 04
    Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County)
    Starting line Lehmacher +37. 2.1% split their ticket. About 428 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +64
  5. 05
    Clemson (Pickens County)
    Starting line Biggs +13. 8.6% split their ticket.
    +61
  6. 06
    Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County)
    Starting line Lehmacher +58. 1.1% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +58

The top 12 precincts carry 12% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,048 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Biggs today.
    +5,048
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,748 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lehmacher's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +522
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lehmacher's way.
    +493

Plus a national shift of 42.1 points of margin (101,119 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Lehmacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Biggs.
  2. In Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County) and Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 42.1 points toward Lehmacher's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    372 precincts, R² 0.989, 53 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,104 to -73,344 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Lehmacher $17,699 cash on hand; Biggs $218,741.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,215 households, 33,644 dials, about 1,763 live conversations: an estimated $5,004 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,004 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.