South Carolina · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Eunice Lehmacher.

Biggs starts 44.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,063 net votes toward Lehmacher, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 42.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Lehmacher the one standing if one comes.

107,182

net votes between Lehmacher and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

44.6 pts

Biggs lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.1-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find107,182

WhereWalnut Springs (Greenville County), Stamp Creek (Oconee County), Neely Farms (Greenville County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Biggs +44.6. Eunice Lehmacher needs 107,182 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

120,023 votes.

That is half of the 240,045 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lehmacher stands today, and what is missing:

63,887 Eunice Lehmacher baseline

171,070 Sheri Biggs baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Lehmacher wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Lehmacher short by 101,186.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,048

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,048

Who. 5,048 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Biggs today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lehmacher needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Biggs.

Mobilize

522

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,748

Who. At least 4,748 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lehmacher's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

493

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,408

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lehmacher's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,063 net votes against a gap of 107,182. Still 101,119 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 42.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 12% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Walnut Springs (Greenville County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +34. 5.2% split their ticket.
+88
02
Stamp Creek (Oconee County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +36. 6.7% split their ticket.
+73
03
Neely Farms (Greenville County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +24. 6.1% split their ticket.
+69
04
Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County)mobilize
Starting line Lehmacher +37. 2.1% split their ticket. About 428 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
05
Clemson (Pickens County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +13. 8.6% split their ticket.
+61
06
Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County)mobilize
Starting line Lehmacher +58. 1.1% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+58
07
Ravenel (Oconee County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +30. 7.4% split their ticket.
+58
08
Hunt Meadows (Anderson County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +57. 4.1% split their ticket.
+52
09
New Hope (Oconee County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +59. 5.3% split their ticket.
+51
10
Fountain Inn 1 (Greenville County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +15. 5.1% split their ticket.
+51
11
Powdersville (Anderson County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +48. 5.6% split their ticket.
+50
12
Sycamore (Greenville County)persuade
Starting line Biggs +42. 5.2% split their ticket.
+49

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Walnut Springs (Greenville County) carries the most.

Walnut Springs (Greenville County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 88. It sits at Biggs +34 on our starting line, and 5.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County) is a turnout target.

Lehmacher's side leads Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County) by about 58 points on our starting line, and it cast about 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 56 votes there.

Clemson (Pickens County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Clemson (Pickens County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Biggs had $219K in cash on hand to Lehmacher's $18K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lehmacher's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 372
Slope: 0.991
R²: 0.989
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 53

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lehmacher's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lehmacher, with Biggs, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,048 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,748 of them live where Lehmacher is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 43.1 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 50.0 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 42.5 points.

Lehmacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Biggs.
In Anderson 4/1 (Anderson County) and Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 42.1 points toward Lehmacher's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,763 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 33,644 dials to 11,215 households, before the last ballot is cast.

11K

households on the target list

34K

dials across three attempts

1,763

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,004 at our published rates: 11,215 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eunice Lehmacher (D)

Upstate social worker and counselor with a master's degree in social work who previously worked as a teacher.

Cash on hand $17,699 and $40,813 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Sheri Biggs (R)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2025, serving on the Foreign Affairs, Homeland Security and Science committees. A board-certified nurse practitioner with a Doctor of Nursing Practice from Samford University, she is a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard.

Cash on hand $218,741 and $505,333 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Brian Corriea (L)

Navy veteran who served nine years before a private-sector career as a claims adjuster; a homeschooling parent, he produces political and economic commentary and runs a fully self-funded campaign.

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Biggs +44.6. Eunice Lehmacher needs 107,182 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eunice Lehmacher win South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,063 net votes against a gap of 107,182; the rest would take a 42.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Eunice Lehmacher needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Walnut Springs (Greenville County), Stamp Creek (Oconee County), Neely Farms (Greenville County), Anderson 4/2 (Anderson County), Clemson (Pickens County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eunice Lehmacher need to persuade?

About 2,524 voters who lean Sheri Biggs today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,048 persuadable voters leaning Sheri Biggs.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.