Upset Brief · SC-04 · Courtney McClain (D) vs. William Timmons (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,963
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Greenville 8 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +26. 6.9% split their ticket. About 1,126 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +159
  2. 02
    Greenville 5 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +25. 9.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +132
  3. 03
    Greenville 19 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +48. 7.7% split their ticket. About 545 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122
  4. 04
    Greenville 7 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +42. 6.2% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +115
  5. 05
    Greenville 29 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +41. 1.6% split their ticket. About 747 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +109
  6. 06
    Greenville 4 (Greenville County)
    Starting line McClain +36. 6.0% split their ticket. About 546 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +101

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,190 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Timmons today.
    +6,190
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,964 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McClain's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,673
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McClain's way.
    +701

Plus a national shift of 20.2 points of margin (47,399 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. McClain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Timmons.
  2. In Greenville 29 (Greenville County) and Greenville 8 (Greenville County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.2 points toward McClain's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    235 precincts, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,095 to -19,965 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through the latest report
    McClain $1,207 cash on hand; Timmons $77,225.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    19,560 households, 58,679 dials, about 3,075 live conversations: an estimated $7,270 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,270 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.