What it would take for Courtney McClain.
Timmons starts 23.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,564 net votes toward McClain, a 3.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes McClain the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.
117,351 votes.
That is half of the 234,701 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where McClain stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 6,190 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Timmons today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. McClain needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Timmons.
Who. At least 13,964 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McClain's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McClain's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 8,564 net votes against a gap of 55,963. Still 47,399 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 15% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+159Greenville 8 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +26. 6.9% split their ticket. About 1,126 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+132Greenville 5 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line McClain +25. 9.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+122Greenville 19 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +48. 7.7% split their ticket. About 545 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+115Greenville 7 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +42. 6.2% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+109Greenville 29 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +41. 1.6% split their ticket. About 747 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+101Greenville 4 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +36. 6.0% split their ticket. About 546 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+101Greenville 10 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line McClain +20. 9.2% split their ticket. About 491 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+99Greenville 16 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line Timmons +1. 15.1% split their ticket.
- 09+95Greenville 14 (Greenville County)mobilizeStarting line McClain +66. 2.6% split their ticket. About 374 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+93Greenville 23 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line Timmons +27. 13.1% split their ticket.
- 11+90Greenville 22 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line Timmons +22. 12.4% split their ticket.
- 12+89Greenville 3 (Greenville County)persuadeStarting line McClain +12. 9.9% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Greenville 8 (Greenville County) carries the most.
Greenville 8 (Greenville County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 159. It sits at McClain +26 on our starting line, and 6.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Greenville 29 (Greenville County) is a turnout target.
McClain's side leads Greenville 29 (Greenville County) by about 41 points on our starting line, and it cast about 747 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 100 votes there.
Greenville 16 (Greenville County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Greenville 16 (Greenville County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 8,564 net votes. The gap is 55,963. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.6 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where McClain's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 235
- Slope
- 1.003
- R²
- 0.996
- Residual SD
- 1.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 24
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: McClain's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with McClain, with Timmons, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,190 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 31Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 13,964 of them live where McClain is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.6 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 33.5 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 24.1 points.
- McClain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Timmons.
- In Greenville 29 (Greenville County) and Greenville 8 (Greenville County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 20.2 points toward McClain's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,075 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 58,679 dials to 19,560 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,270 at our published rates: 19,560 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Courtney McClain (D)
Spartanburg native and political organizer who has served as president of the South Carolina NAACP Youth and College Division; she earned a master's in political science from Howard University in 2025.
Cash on hand $1,207 and $32,993 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 23, 2026.
William Timmons (R)
U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2019 and a former state senator (2016 to 2018); a Greenville attorney and former prosecutor who serves as an Air Force officer.
Cash on hand $77,225 and $1,595,725 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jessica Ethridge (L)
Greer native and Upstate legal professional of nearly 20 years who works as South Carolina state operations manager in the title insurance industry; she has served as vice president of the South Carolina Upstate Paralegal Association.
Cash on hand $324 and $409 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Timmons +23.8. Courtney McClain needs 55,963 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Courtney McClain win South Carolina's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,564 net votes against a gap of 55,963; the rest would take a 20.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Courtney McClain needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Greenville 8 (Greenville County), Greenville 5 (Greenville County), Greenville 19 (Greenville County), Greenville 7 (Greenville County), Greenville 29 (Greenville County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Courtney McClain need to persuade?
About 3,095 voters who lean William Timmons today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,190 persuadable voters leaning William Timmons.
When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?
Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- South Carolina Election Commission, election results
- South Carolina Election Commission, voter participation statistics
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: South Carolina's 4th congressional district
- South Carolina Public Radio: 4th Congressional District candidate could make state history in 2026 election