Upset Brief · SC-05 · Mallory Dittmer (D) vs. Wes Climer (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
63,714
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Edgewood (York County)
    Starting line Dittmer +64. 1.5% split their ticket. About 850 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +199
  2. 02
    Rock Hill No. 3 (York County)
    Starting line Dittmer +73. 2.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  3. 03
    Rock Hill No. 2 (York County)
    Starting line Dittmer +84. 1.0% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +134
  4. 04
    Fairgrounds (York County)
    Starting line Dittmer +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 496 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +95
  5. 05
    Rock Hill No. 6 (York County)
    Starting line Dittmer +56. 1.5% split their ticket. About 389 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80
  6. 06
    Rembert (Sumter County)
    Starting line Dittmer +61. 1.5% split their ticket. About 334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,501 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Climer today.
    +4,501
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dittmer's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,902
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dittmer's way.
    +331

Plus a national shift of 23.6 points of margin (56,979 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Dittmer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Climer.
  2. In Edgewood (York County) and Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.6 points toward Dittmer's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    361 precincts, R² 0.993, 47 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -85,443 to -28,613 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Dittmer $74,508 cash on hand; Climer $599,621.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,896 households, 47,688 dials, about 2,499 live conversations: an estimated $6,303 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,303 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.