South Carolina · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Mallory Dittmer.

Q: Can Mallory Dittmer win South Carolina's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,734 net votes against a gap of 63,714; the rest would take a 23.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes Mallory Dittmer needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Edgewood (York County), Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), Rock Hill No. 2 (York County), Fairgrounds (York County), Rock Hill No. 6 (York County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Mallory Dittmer need to persuade?

About 2,250 voters who lean Wes Climer today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,501 persuadable voters leaning Wes Climer.

Q: When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Climer starts 26.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,734 net votes toward Dittmer, a 2.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 23.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dittmer the one standing if one comes.

63,714

net votes between Dittmer and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

26.3 pts

Climer lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find63,714

WhereEdgewood (York County), Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), Rock Hill No. 2 (York County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Climer +26.3. Mallory Dittmer needs 64,061 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

120,967 votes.

That is half of the 241,932 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dittmer stands today, and what is missing:

87,904 Mallory Dittmer baseline

151,617 Wes Climer baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dittmer wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dittmer short by 56,839.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,501

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,501

Who. 4,501 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Climer today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dittmer needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Climer.

Mobilize

1,902

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,088

Who. At least 13,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dittmer's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

331

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 947

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dittmer's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,734 net votes against a gap of 63,714. Still 56,980 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 23.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Edgewood (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +64. 1.5% split their ticket. About 850 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+199
02
Rock Hill No. 3 (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +73. 2.5% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+170
03
Rock Hill No. 2 (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +84. 1.0% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+134
04
Fairgrounds (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 496 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+95
05
Rock Hill No. 6 (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +56. 1.5% split their ticket. About 389 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
06
Rembert (Sumter County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +61. 1.5% split their ticket. About 334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
07
Rock Hill No. 8 (York County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +77. 1.4% split their ticket. About 280 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
08
The Lodge (Lancaster County)persuade
Starting line Climer +22. 6.0% split their ticket.
+72
09
Lake Bowen Baptist (Spartanburg County)persuade
Starting line Climer +62. 5.4% split their ticket.
+70
10
Chesterfield Ave (Lancaster County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +49. 2.2% split their ticket. About 385 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+69
11
Fort Mill No. 2 (York County)persuade
Starting line Climer +22. 4.7% split their ticket.
+69
12
Folsom Park (Sumter County)mobilize
Starting line Dittmer +62. 0.8% split their ticket. About 292 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Edgewood (York County) carries the most.

Edgewood (York County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 199. It sits at Dittmer +64 on our starting line, and 1.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Rock Hill No. 3 (York County) is a turnout target.

Dittmer's side leads Rock Hill No. 3 (York County) by about 73 points on our starting line, and it cast about 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 157 votes there.

The Lodge (Lancaster County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, The Lodge (Lancaster County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Climer had $600K in cash on hand to Dittmer's $75K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dittmer's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 361
Slope: 0.984
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 2.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 47

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dittmer's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dittmer, with Climer, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,501 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 13,088 of them live where Dittmer is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.8 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 30.1 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 25.0 points.

Dittmer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Climer.
In Edgewood (York County) and Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 23.6 points toward Dittmer's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,499 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 47,688 dials to 15,896 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

48K

dials across three attempts

2,499

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,303 at our published rates: 15,896 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mallory Dittmer (D)

Fort Mill brand and campaign consultant who spent 15 years in corporate fashion retail building partnerships with brands such as Kate Spade and Coach, rising to vice president by age 33.

Cash on hand $74,508 and $139,717 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Wes Climer (R)

State senator for District 15 (York County) since 2016, where he chairs the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee; a Rock Hill financial planner and former congressional aide.

Cash on hand $599,621 and $884,284 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Climer +26.3. Mallory Dittmer needs 64,061 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mallory Dittmer win South Carolina's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,734 net votes against a gap of 63,714; the rest would take a 23.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Mallory Dittmer needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Edgewood (York County), Rock Hill No. 3 (York County), Rock Hill No. 2 (York County), Fairgrounds (York County), Rock Hill No. 6 (York County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mallory Dittmer need to persuade?

About 2,250 voters who lean Wes Climer today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,501 persuadable voters leaning Wes Climer.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.