Upset Brief · SC-06 · John Peterson (R) vs. Jim Clyburn (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
51,065
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Jordan (Clarendon County)
    Starting line Peterson +46. 4.1% split their ticket. About 745 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +151
  2. 02
    St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Peterson +1. 9.2% split their ticket.
    +127
  3. 03
    Saul Dam (Dorchester County)
    Starting line Peterson +37. 6.5% split their ticket. About 848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +116
  4. 04
    St. Andrews 27 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Clyburn +15. 9.2% split their ticket.
    +112
  5. 05
    Margaritaville (Jasper County)
    Starting line Peterson +22. 3.2% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +110
  6. 06
    Sandy Run (Calhoun County)
    Starting line Peterson +51. 5.9% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,477 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clyburn today.
    +5,477
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 19,214 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Peterson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,110
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peterson's way.
    +510

Plus a national shift of 19.9 points of margin (42,968 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clyburn.
  2. In Jordan (Clarendon County) and Saul Dam (Dorchester County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 19.9 points toward Peterson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    438 precincts, R² 0.993, 82 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,977 to -18,088 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Peterson no FEC totals reported; Clyburn $1,634,793.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,821 households, 65,462 dials, about 3,430 live conversations: an estimated $7,568 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,568 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.