South Carolina · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for John Peterson.

Q: Can John Peterson win South Carolina's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,097 net votes against a gap of 51,065; the rest would take a 19.9-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes John Peterson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Jordan (Clarendon County), St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County), Saul Dam (Dorchester County), St. Andrews 27 (Charleston County), Margaritaville (Jasper County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does John Peterson need to persuade?

About 2,738 voters who lean Jim Clyburn today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,477 persuadable voters leaning Jim Clyburn.

Q: When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Clyburn starts 23.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,097 net votes toward Peterson, a 3.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 19.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Peterson the one standing if one comes.

51,065

net votes between Peterson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

23.6 pts

Clyburn lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.9-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find51,065

WhereJordan (Clarendon County), St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County), Saul Dam (Dorchester County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Clyburn +23.6. John Peterson needs 51,065 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

108,083 votes.

That is half of the 216,164 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Peterson stands today, and what is missing:

80,497 John Peterson baseline

131,562 Jim Clyburn baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Peterson wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Peterson short by 42,917.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,477

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,477

Who. 5,477 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clyburn today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Peterson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Clyburn.

Mobilize

2,110

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,214

Who. At least 19,214 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Peterson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

510

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,457

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peterson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,097 net votes against a gap of 51,065. Still 42,968 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 19.9 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Jordan (Clarendon County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +46. 4.1% split their ticket. About 745 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151
02
St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Peterson +1. 9.2% split their ticket.
+127
03
Saul Dam (Dorchester County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +37. 6.5% split their ticket. About 848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+116
04
St. Andrews 27 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Clyburn +15. 9.2% split their ticket.
+112
05
Margaritaville (Jasper County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +22. 3.2% split their ticket. About 972 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+110
06
Sandy Run (Calhoun County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +51. 5.9% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
07
Beech Hill 2 (Dorchester County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +26. 8.8% split their ticket. About 1,003 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
08
St. Andrews 29 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Clyburn +7. 11.0% split their ticket.
+96
09
St. Pauls 3 (Charleston County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +35. 5.5% split their ticket. About 422 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+94
10
St. Pauls 6 (Charleston County)mobilize
Starting line Peterson +25. 5.8% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+90
11
Ward 13 (Richland County)persuade
Starting line Clyburn +40. 12.7% split their ticket.
+82
12
St. Andrews 28 (Charleston County)persuade
Starting line Clyburn +4. 8.7% split their ticket.
+81

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Jordan (Clarendon County) carries the most.

Jordan (Clarendon County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 151. It sits at Peterson +46 on our starting line, and 4.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Saul Dam (Dorchester County) is a turnout target.

Peterson's side leads Saul Dam (Dorchester County) by about 37 points on our starting line, and it cast about 848 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 106 votes there.

Ward 13 (Richland County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ward 13 (Richland County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 8,097 net votes. The gap is 51,065. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.7 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Peterson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 438
Slope: 1.011
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 3.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 82

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Peterson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Peterson, with Clyburn, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,477 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 19,214 of them live where Peterson is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.7 points; Matthews carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 17.8 points; Cunningham carried the 2022 governor's race by 26.2 points.

Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clyburn.
In Jordan (Clarendon County) and Saul Dam (Dorchester County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 19.9 points toward Peterson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,430 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 65,462 dials to 21,821 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

65K

dials across three attempts

3,430

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,568 at our published rates: 21,821 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

John Peterson (R)

North Charleston hospitality professional at the North Charleston Convention Center with a background in mathematics, and president of the Deer Park 1B precinct in the Charleston County Republican Party.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jim Clyburn (D)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 1993 and dean of South Carolina's congressional delegation; he served as House majority whip (2007 to 2011 and 2019 to 2023) and as assistant Democratic leader. He is a graduate of South Carolina State University.

Cash on hand $1,634,793 and $1,225,051 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Clyburn +23.6. John Peterson needs 51,065 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can John Peterson win South Carolina's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,097 net votes against a gap of 51,065; the rest would take a 19.9-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes John Peterson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Jordan (Clarendon County), St. Andrews 37 (Charleston County), Saul Dam (Dorchester County), St. Andrews 27 (Charleston County), Margaritaville (Jasper County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does John Peterson need to persuade?

About 2,738 voters who lean Jim Clyburn today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,477 persuadable voters leaning Jim Clyburn.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.