Vincent can win. The plan uses 39 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County)

   Starting line Fry +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
   +328
2. 02
   Dunes #1 (Horry County)

   Starting line Fry +23. 4.1% split their ticket.
   +309
3. 03
   Socastee #3 (Horry County)

   Starting line Fry +18. 5.1% split their ticket.
   +305
4. 04
   Pawley's Island No. 2 (Georgetown County)

   Starting line Vincent +7. 4.4% split their ticket.
   +297
5. 05
   Pawley's Island No. 1 (Georgetown County)

   Starting line Fry +12. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +297
6. 06
   Marlowe #3 (Horry County)

   Starting line Fry +15. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +296

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  32,832 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Fry, plus the 22 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +12,653
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 28,545 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Vincent's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,630
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Vincent's way.
  +82

1. Vincent wins 19 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Fry.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 39 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  334 precincts, R² 0.995, 34 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -21,273 to 23,288 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Vincent $62,378 cash on hand; Fry $1,038,817.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  21,258 households, 63,775 dials, about 3,342 live conversations: an estimated $7,372 at published rates.