How John Vincent wins.
Fry starts 5.1 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Vincent needs 13,681 net votes, and the plan uses 39 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County), Dunes #1 (Horry County) and Socastee #3 (Horry County).
Vincent can win. The plan uses 39 percent of what history allows.
128,886 votes.
That is half of the 257,770 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Vincent stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Fry +5.1 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
14% today. 53% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 32,832 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Fry, plus the 22 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Vincent needs to win 19 percent of the ones now leaning Fry.
Who. At least 28,545 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Vincent's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Vincent's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,365 net votes against a gap of 13,681. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 24% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+328Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County)persuadeStarting line Fry +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 02+309Dunes #1 (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +23. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 03+305Socastee #3 (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +18. 5.1% split their ticket.
- 04+297Pawley's Island No. 2 (Georgetown County)persuadeStarting line Vincent +7. 4.4% split their ticket.
- 05+297Pawley's Island No. 1 (Georgetown County)persuadeStarting line Fry +12. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 06+296Marlowe #3 (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +15. 4.2% split their ticket.
- 07+271Pawley's Island No. 4 (Georgetown County)persuadeStarting line Fry +21. 6.8% split their ticket.
- 08+271Ebenezer No. 1 (Florence County)persuadeStarting line Fry +12. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 09+265River Oaks (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +19. 4.7% split their ticket.
- 10+262Savannah Grove (Florence County)persuadeStarting line Vincent +28. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 11+252Emerald Forest #3 (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +14. 5.3% split their ticket.
- 12+249Surfside #4 (Horry County)persuadeStarting line Fry +17. 4.3% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County) carries the most.
Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 328. It sits at Fry +16 on our starting line, and 6.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Pawley's Island No. 4 (Georgetown County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Pawley's Island No. 4 (Georgetown County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Fry had $1.04 million in cash on hand to Vincent's $62K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Vincent's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 334
- Slope
- 1.018
- R²
- 0.995
- Residual SD
- 2.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 34
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Vincent's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Vincent, with Fry, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,653 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 31Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 28,545 of them live where Vincent is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 26.3 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 33.3 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 27.6 points.
- Vincent wins 19 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Fry.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 39 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
3,342 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 63,775 dials to 21,258 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,372 at our published rates: 21,258 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
John Vincent (D)
Retired U.S. Navy command master chief who served 20 years, including as a nuclear submarine navigator, and co-founded a leadership consulting firm with his wife, Deb.
Cash on hand $62,378 and $297,264 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Russell Fry (R)
U.S. representative for the 7th District since 2023 and an attorney who previously represented District 106 in the South Carolina House of Representatives (2015 to 2022).
Cash on hand $1,038,817 and $1,720,803 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fry +5.3. John Vincent needs 13,681 net votes. Odds 14% today, 53% with the plan.
Questions
Can John Vincent win South Carolina's 7th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. John Vincent needs 13,681 net votes, and recent South Carolina results show about 37,274 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 39 percent of that.
Where are the votes John Vincent needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Pawley's Island No. 5 (Georgetown County), Dunes #1 (Horry County), Socastee #3 (Horry County), Pawley's Island No. 2 (Georgetown County), Pawley's Island No. 1 (Georgetown County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does John Vincent need to persuade?
About 6,326 voters who lean Russell Fry today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 19 percent of the 32,832 persuadable voters leaning Russell Fry.
When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?
Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- South Carolina Election Commission, election results
- South Carolina Election Commission, voter participation statistics
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Blueprint Polling (D) (2026-07-27 to 2026-07-28)