Upset Brief · South Carolina U.S. Senate · Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R), incumbent

Andrews can win. The plan uses 23 percent of what history allows.

35%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
35,017
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Charleston County
    Starting line Andrews +22. 13,836 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 62,042 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +12,115
  2. 02
    Richland County
    Starting line Andrews +48. 9,594 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 55,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,815
  3. 03
    Lexington County
    Starting line Graham +17. 7,941 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 47,625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,049
  4. 04
    Greenville County
    Starting line Graham +8. 12,799 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 86,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,272
  5. 05
    Berkeley County
    Starting line even. 5,483 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 41,473 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,984
  6. 06
    Dorchester County
    Starting line Andrews +2. 3,966 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 28,177 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,887

The top 12 counties carry 92% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    119,402 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Graham, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +27,682
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 244,342 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Andrews's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +8,478
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Andrews's way.
    +608
What has to be true
  1. Andrews wins 12 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Graham.
  2. In the precincts Andrews's side carries in Richland County and Charleston County, 8 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 23 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,321 precincts, R² 0.969, 323 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -139,631 to 144,707 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through the latest report
    Andrews $4,119,295 cash on hand; Graham $251,431.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    57,232 households, 171,695 dials, about 8,997 live conversations: an estimated $14,869 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $14,869 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.