South Carolina · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Annie Andrews wins.

Graham starts 1.9 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Andrews needs 35,017 net votes, and the plan uses 23 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Charleston County, Richland County and Lexington County.

35,017

net votes between Andrews and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

2.0 pts

Graham lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Andrews can win. The plan uses 23 percent of what history allows.

Odds today35%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find35,017

WhereCharleston County, Richland County, Lexington County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Graham +0.1. Annie Andrews needs 36,439 net votes. Odds 49% today, 66% with the plan.

The number

862,352 votes.

That is half of the 1,724,703 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Andrews stands today, and what is missing:

837,612 Annie Andrews baseline

872,629 Darline Graham baseline

Starting line: Graham +1.9 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

35% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Andrews wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

35%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves23%

The plan on this page sits at 23%. Median outcome at this setting: Andrews by 2,079.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

28K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 119,402

Who. 119,402 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Graham, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Andrews needs to win 12 percent of the ones now leaning Graham.

Mobilize

8,478

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 244,342

Who. At least 244,342 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Andrews's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

608

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,495

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Andrews's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 36,768 net votes against a gap of 35,017. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 92% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Charleston Countypersuade
Starting line Andrews +22. 13,836 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 62,042 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+12,115
02
Richland Countypersuade
Starting line Andrews +48. 9,594 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 55,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,815
03
Lexington Countypersuade
Starting line Graham +17. 7,941 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 47,625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,049
04
Greenville Countypersuade
Starting line Graham +8. 12,799 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 86,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,272
05
Berkeley Countypersuade
Starting line even. 5,483 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 41,473 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,984
06
Dorchester Countypersuade
Starting line Andrews +2. 3,966 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 28,177 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,887
07
Spartanburg Countypersuade
Starting line Graham +17. 6,643 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 60,951 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+812
08
Florence Countymobilize
Starting line Andrews +6. 2,672 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 19,726 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+796
09
York Countymobilize
Starting line Graham +5. 5,966 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 55,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+779
10
Orangeburg Countymobilize
Starting line Andrews +43. 1,486 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 10,637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+670
11
Pickens Countypersuade
Starting line Graham +36. 2,788 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 20,281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+434
12
Sumter Countymobilize
Starting line Andrews +22. 1,869 persuadable voters leaning Graham; 14,397 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+378

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Charleston County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Charleston County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 12,115. It sits at Andrews +22 on our starting line.

Richland County is a turnout target.

In the precincts Andrews's side carries in Richland County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 3,729 votes in this plan.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Andrews's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 2,321
Slope: 1.016
R²: 0.969
Residual SD: 6.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 323

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Andrews's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Andrews, with Graham, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 27,682 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 19 to 31
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 19 through October 31, Monday to Saturday, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m.
November 1 to 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 244,342 of them live where Andrews is favored. Mailed absentee ballots must reach the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count and there are no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. South Carolina has no same-day registration. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.9 points; Scott carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 25.9 points; McMaster carried the 2022 governor's race by 17.4 points.

Andrews wins 12 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Graham.
In the precincts Andrews's side carries in Richland County and Charleston County, 8 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 23 percent of what recent South Carolina results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

8,997 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 171,695 dials to 57,232 households, before the last ballot is cast.

57K

households on the target list

172K

dials across three attempts

8,997

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $14,869 at our published rates: 57,232 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Annie Andrews (D)

Charleston pediatrician who spent 14 years caring for children at MUSC Children's Hospital and built a research focus on preventing pediatric gun injuries. She holds an M.D. from the University of Cincinnati, a master's in clinical research from the Medical University of South Carolina and a bachelor's from the University of Dayton.

Cash on hand $4,119,295 and $10,804,041 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Darline Graham (R)

U.S. senator from South Carolina since July 2026, the first woman to represent the state in the Senate. She previously led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind as commissioner (2019 to 2026) after a career at the state Vocational Rehabilitation Department, and holds degrees from the College of Charleston and South Carolina State University.

Cash on hand $251,431 and $346,783 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 5, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Kasie Whitener (L)

Writer, business owner and clinical assistant professor of entrepreneurship and strategic management at the University of South Carolina's Darla Moore School of Business, where she has taught since 2017. She co-hosts a morning radio show on 100.7 The Point and holds a PhD in organization and management.

Cash on hand $2,607 and $17,264 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mark Hackett (C)

House painter running on the Constitution Party line with a platform of limiting the federal government, reducing the national debt and avoiding foreign military involvement.

Declared write-in

Catherine Fleming Bruce (D)

Columbia author and historic preservationist who founded the Collaborative for Community Trust in 1995 and helped preserve the Modjeska Monteith Simkins House as a human rights center. She holds degrees from Agnes Scott College and the University of South Carolina.

Cash on hand $5,030 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through September 30, 2025.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Graham +0.1. Annie Andrews needs 36,439 net votes. Odds 49% today, 66% with the plan.

Questions

Can Annie Andrews win the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Annie Andrews needs 35,017 net votes, and recent South Carolina results show about 158,593 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 23 percent of that.

Where are the votes Annie Andrews needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Charleston County, Richland County, Lexington County, Greenville County, Berkeley County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Annie Andrews need to persuade?

About 13,841 voters who lean Darline Graham today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 12 percent of the 119,402 persuadable voters leaning Darline Graham.

When does early voting start in South Carolina in 2026?

Early in-person voting in South Carolina runs October 19 through October 31, 2026, Monday through Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m., with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, such as being 65 or older; applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m., and ballots must reach the county office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Registration closes October 2 in person, October 4 online, or by mail postmarked October 5. Photo ID is required, and South Carolina does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official South Carolina Election Commission returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.