Upset Brief · TN-04 · Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
39,601
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 08-1 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +41. About 2,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +293
  2. 02
    Precinct 32-3 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +55. About 1,221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +233
  3. 03
    Precinct 32-4 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +58. 1.2% split their ticket. About 825 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  4. 04
    Precinct 08-3 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +41. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  5. 05
    Precinct 29-2 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +55. About 800 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153
  6. 06
    Precinct 32-2 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Broderick +63. 0.9% split their ticket. About 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +134

The top 12 precincts carry 43% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    704 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DesJarlais today.
    +704
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 31,340 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Broderick's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,217
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Broderick's way.
    +468

Plus a national shift of 21.3 points of margin (35,213 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Broderick wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DesJarlais.
  2. In Precinct 08-1 (Davidson County) and Precinct 32-3 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 21.3 points toward Broderick's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    196 precincts, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -54,660 to -15,955 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Broderick $8,490 cash on hand; DesJarlais $495,126.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,519 households, 70,556 dials, about 3,697 live conversations: an estimated $8,156 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,156 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.