The Political Group · Tennessee 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Tennessee race.

10 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
TN-05
Chaz Molder vs. Charlie Hatcher
4% → 52%+48 pts18,268$10,789
33,517 households
Brief ›
TN-09
Justin J. Pearson vs. Brent Taylor
19% → 52%+33 pts8,404$6,121
15,438 households
Brief ›
Tennessee U.S. Senate
Marquita Bradshaw vs. Bill Hagerty
0% → 1%+1 pts403,753$91,992
334,638 households
Brief ›
TN-01
Kristi Burke vs. Diana Harshbarger
0% → 0%+0 pts111,844$1,390
2,241 households
Brief ›
TN-02
Michaela Barnett vs. Tim Burchett
0% → 0%+0 pts69,274$5,132
11,501 households
Brief ›
TN-03
Anna Golladay vs. Chuck Fleischmann
0% → 0%+0 pts74,594$5,715
13,563 households
Brief ›
TN-04
Victoria Broderick vs. Scott DesJarlais
<1% → <1%+0 pts39,601$8,156
23,519 households
Brief ›
TN-06
Mike Croley vs. Johnny Garrett
<1% → <1%+0 pts49,410$8,768
26,220 households
Brief ›
TN-07
Darden Copeland vs. Matt Van Epps
<1% → <1%+0 pts42,708$7,378
21,274 households
Brief ›
TN-08
Heidi Kuhn vs. David Kustoff
<1% → <1%+0 pts48,279$7,752
22,354 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · TN-05 · Chaz Molder (D) vs. Charlie Hatcher (R)

Molder can win. The plan uses 89 percent of what history allows.

Odds today4%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find18,268
Call program$10,789

Where

  1. Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) +443
    Starting line Molder +98. 3.4% split their ticket. About 949 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County) +437
    Starting line Molder +96. 3.2% split their ticket. About 927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County) +419
    Starting line Molder +98. 4.7% split their ticket. About 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 07-01 (Shelby County) +413
    Starting line Molder +90. 3.5% split their ticket. About 1,029 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 09-06 (Shelby County) +404
    Starting line Molder +98. 3.9% split their ticket. About 893 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,694
    13,131 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hatcher, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +6,884
    At least 33,333 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Molder's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +604
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Molder's way.

What has to be true

  1. Molder wins 45 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hatcher.
  2. In Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-03 (Shelby County), 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 89 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    222 precincts, slope 0.965, R² 0.999, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -17,942 to 19,995
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Molder $1,482,196 · Hatcher $104,821
  • Call program
    33,517 households, 100,551 dials, about 5,269 live conversations and 1,797 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-09 · Justin J. Pearson (D) vs. Brent Taylor (R)

Pearson can win. The plan uses 47 percent of what history allows.

Odds today19%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find8,404
Call program$6,121

Where

  1. Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) +589
    Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County) +492
    Starting line Pearson +94. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 09-07 (Shelby County) +478
    Starting line Pearson +99. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 09-08 (Shelby County) +429
    Starting line Pearson +99. 3.3% split their ticket. About 998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 10-03 (Shelby County) +404
    Starting line Pearson +96. 2.4% split their ticket. About 937 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 55% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,099
    8,809 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Taylor, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +4,404
    At least 34,070 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +320
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearson's way.

What has to be true

  1. Pearson wins 23 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Taylor.
  2. In Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) and Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County), 16 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 47 percent of what recent Tennessee results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    232 precincts, slope 0.967, R² 0.999, 45 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -15,776 to 16,770
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Pearson $844,733 · Taylor $417,377
  • Call program
    15,438 households, 46,314 dials, about 2,427 live conversations and 828 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Tennessee U.S. Senate · Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find403,753
Call program$91,992

Where

  1. Shelby County +32,508
    Starting line Bradshaw +25. 13,733 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 127,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Davidson County +26,563
    Starting line Bradshaw +34. 11,541 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 114,011 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Knox County +10,372
    Starting line Hagerty +12. 8,275 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 95,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Hamilton County +9,725
    Starting line Hagerty +9. 6,616 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 74,807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Williamson County +6,982
    Starting line Hagerty +26. 6,756 persuadable voters leaning Hagerty; 40,595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 69% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +115,743
    115,743 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Hagerty, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +38,392
    At least 240,055 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bradshaw's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +4,705
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Bradshaw's way.

Plus a 13.8-point national shift (244,914 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Bradshaw wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hagerty.
  2. In the precincts Bradshaw's side carries in Shelby County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Bradshaw's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    1,940 precincts, slope 0.979, R² 0.997, 339 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -408,265 to -78,268
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Bradshaw $1,043 · Hagerty $5,234,429
  • Call program
    334,638 households, 1,003,915 dials, about 52,605 live conversations and 17,938 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-01 · Kristi Burke (D) vs. Diana Harshbarger (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 57.3-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find111,844
Call program$1,390

Where

  1. South Side (Washington County) +96
    Starting line Burke +36. 0.8% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Visitor's Center (Washington County) +25
    Starting line Harshbarger +38. 2.2% split their ticket.
  3. Freedom Hall (Washington County) +24
    Starting line Harshbarger +27. 2.4% split their ticket.
  4. Indian Trail North (Washington County) +22
    Starting line Harshbarger +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 8A (Sullivan County) +22
    Starting line Harshbarger +59. 1.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +931
    931 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harshbarger today.
  • Mobilize +85
    Few precincts give Burke's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +227
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 57.3-point national shift (110,602 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Burke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harshbarger.
  2. In South Side (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 57.3 points toward Burke's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    201 precincts, slope 0.950, R² 0.983, 30 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,636 to -88,271
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Burke $14,106 · Harshbarger $1,985,063
  • Call program
    2,241 households, 6,722 dials, about 352 live conversations and 120 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-02 · Michaela Barnett (D) vs. Tim Burchett (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find69,274
Call program$5,132

Where

  1. Fair Garden (Knox County) +137
    Starting line Barnett +56. About 702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Dogwood (Knox County) +131
    Starting line Barnett +27. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,315 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Central UMC (Knox County) +103
    Starting line Barnett +63. 1.8% split their ticket. About 409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Larry Cox Sr Center 0013 (Knox County) +82
    Starting line Barnett +24. 1.5% split their ticket. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Green School (Knox County) +75
    Starting line Barnett +36. 0.5% split their ticket. About 582 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,009
    1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Burchett today.
  • Mobilize +1,371
    At least 13,461 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barnett's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +416
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barnett's way.

Plus a 31.7-point national shift (66,478 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Barnett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Burchett.
  2. In Fair Garden (Knox County) and Dogwood (Knox County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 31.7 points toward Barnett's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    189 precincts, slope 0.989, R² 0.996, 17 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -90,696 to -41,883
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Barnett $56,230 · Burchett $967,447
  • Call program
    11,501 households, 34,503 dials, about 1,808 live conversations and 617 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-03 · Anna Golladay (D) vs. Chuck Fleischmann (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find74,594
Call program$5,715

Where

  1. Dalewood (Hamilton County) +203
    Starting line Golladay +81. 2.2% split their ticket. About 674 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Alton Park (Hamilton County) +188
    Starting line Golladay +67. 2.7% split their ticket. About 799 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Bushtown (Hamilton County) +179
    Starting line Golladay +73. 2.8% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. East Chattanooga (Hamilton County) +167
    Starting line Golladay +73. 1.7% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Woodmore (Hamilton County) +154
    Starting line Golladay +75. 1.1% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 48% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,014
    1,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fleischmann today.
  • Mobilize +2,350
    At least 16,432 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Golladay's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +419
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Golladay's way.

Plus a 34.4-point national shift (70,811 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Golladay wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fleischmann.
  2. In Dalewood (Hamilton County) and Alton Park (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 34.4 points toward Golladay's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    212 precincts, slope 0.967, R² 0.997, 22 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,742 to -47,109
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Golladay $33,870 · Fleischmann $4,835,525
  • Call program
    13,563 households, 40,689 dials, about 2,132 live conversations and 727 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-04 · Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find39,601
Call program$8,156

Where

  1. Precinct 08-1 (Davidson County) +293
    Starting line Broderick +41. About 2,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 32-3 (Davidson County) +233
    Starting line Broderick +55. About 1,221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 32-4 (Davidson County) +170
    Starting line Broderick +58. 1.2% split their ticket. About 825 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 08-3 (Davidson County) +170
    Starting line Broderick +41. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 29-2 (Davidson County) +153
    Starting line Broderick +55. About 800 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 43% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +704
    704 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DesJarlais today.
  • Mobilize +3,217
    At least 31,340 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Broderick's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +468
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Broderick's way.

Plus a 21.3-point national shift (35,213 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Broderick wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DesJarlais.
  2. In Precinct 08-1 (Davidson County) and Precinct 32-3 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 21.3 points toward Broderick's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    196 precincts, slope 1.002, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -54,660 to -15,955
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Broderick $8,490 · DesJarlais $495,126
  • Call program
    23,519 households, 70,556 dials, about 3,697 live conversations and 1,261 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-06 · Mike Croley (D) vs. Johnny Garrett (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find49,410
Call program$8,768

Where

  1. Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) +288
    Starting line Croley +66. 1.4% split their ticket. About 1,195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County) +227
    Starting line Croley +56. 0.5% split their ticket. About 1,095 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 05-4 (Davidson County) +193
    Starting line Croley +62. About 891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 06-8 (Davidson County) +188
    Starting line Croley +68. 1.3% split their ticket. About 722 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 09-2 (Davidson County) +185
    Starting line Croley +61. About 853 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,107
    1,107 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garrett today.
  • Mobilize +5,143
    At least 34,223 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Croley's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +547
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Croley's way.

Plus a 20.5-point national shift (42,613 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Croley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garrett.
  2. In Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) and Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.5 points toward Croley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    271 precincts, slope 0.988, R² 0.998, 32 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -66,682 to -18,661
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Croley $2,431 · Garrett $287,585
  • Call program
    26,220 households, 78,660 dials, about 4,122 live conversations and 1,406 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-07 · Darden Copeland (D) vs. Matt Van Epps (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 18.4-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find42,708
Call program$7,378

Where

  1. Precinct 03-8 (Davidson County) +358
    Starting line Copeland +79. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 02-5 (Davidson County) +342
    Starting line Copeland +78. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,200 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 01-7 (Davidson County) +309
    Starting line Copeland +79. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,054 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 03-2 (Davidson County) +247
    Starting line Copeland +55. About 1,253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 02-4 (Davidson County) +211
    Starting line Copeland +57. About 1,079 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 48% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +908
    908 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Van Epps today.
  • Mobilize +3,430
    At least 27,335 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Copeland's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +588
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Copeland's way.

Plus a 18.4-point national shift (37,781 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Copeland wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Van Epps.
  2. In Precinct 03-8 (Davidson County) and Precinct 02-5 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 18.4 points toward Copeland's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    194 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.998, 31 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,467 to -13,771
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Copeland $78,689 · Van Epps $207,954
  • Call program
    21,274 households, 63,821 dials, about 3,344 live conversations and 1,140 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · TN-08 · Heidi Kuhn (D) vs. David Kustoff (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.7-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find48,279
Call program$7,752

Where

  1. Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) +256
    Starting line Kuhn +68. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,058 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County) +245
    Starting line Kuhn +48. About 1,441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 05-06 (Shelby County) +191
    Starting line Kuhn +49. About 1,119 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 05-03 (Shelby County) +190
    Starting line Kuhn +30. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,743 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 06-06 (Shelby County) +166
    Starting line Kuhn +60. 2.7% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 41% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,180
    1,180 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kustoff today.
  • Mobilize +3,190
    At least 28,597 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kuhn's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +504
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kuhn's way.

Plus a 21.7-point national shift (43,405 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kuhn wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kustoff.
  2. In Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) and Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 21.7 points toward Kuhn's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    223 precincts, slope 0.995, R² 0.997, 43 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -66,848 to -20,064
  • Cash on hand, July 17
    Kuhn $13,478 · Kustoff $3,006,838
  • Call program
    22,354 households, 67,063 dials, about 3,514 live conversations and 1,198 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.