Tennessee · 10 federal races · election held November 3

Every Tennessee race. From the other side.

The election is over. 8 of 10 races are called so far, and no underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Tennessee's 2026 House elections use the congressional map the General Assembly passed and Gov. Bill Lee signed on May 7, 2026, which splits Shelby County (Memphis) among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. Because the lines changed, the precinct math here uses statewide contests (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Governor in 2022) re-aggregated onto the new districts through the Census Bureau's block assignment file. Federal lawsuits over the map are pending; no court has blocked it.

Tennessee does not publish ballots cast or registration by precinct. Precinct turnout here is estimated from each precinct's votes and its county's official totals, so county and district totals match the Secretary of State exactly.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

8,404

net votes: the closest upset in Tennessee (TN-09)

underdog wins out of 8 races called so far

Pick a race

10 plans. One question each.

Tennessee U.S. Senate · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Marquita Bradshaw

403,753 net votes to find, most of them in Shelby County and Davidson County.

Result: Bill Hagerty won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-01 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Kristi Burke

111,844 net votes to find, most of them in South Side (Washington County) and Visitor's Center (Washington County).

Result: Diana Harshbarger won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-02 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Michaela Barnett

69,274 net votes to find, most of them in Fair Garden (Knox County) and Dogwood (Knox County).

Result: Tim Burchett won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-03 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Anna Golladay

74,594 net votes to find, most of them in Dalewood (Hamilton County) and Alton Park (Hamilton County).

Result: Chuck Fleischmann won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Victoria Broderick

39,601 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 08-1 (Davidson County) and Precinct 32-3 (Davidson County).

Result: Victoria Broderick leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

TN-05 · open seat

How Chaz Molder wins

18,268 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 09-04 (Shelby County) and Precinct 09-09 (Shelby County).

Result: Charlie Hatcher won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-06 · open seat

What it would take for Mike Croley

49,410 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 05-6 (Davidson County) and Precinct 18-3 (Davidson County).

Result: Johnny Garrett won.

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TN-07 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Darden Copeland

42,708 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 03-8 (Davidson County) and Precinct 02-5 (Davidson County).

Result: Matt Van Epps won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Heidi Kuhn

48,279 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 06-01 (Shelby County) and Precinct 05-05 (Shelby County).

Result: David Kustoff won.

See the path and the result ›

TN-09 · open seat

How Justin J. Pearson wins

8,404 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 12-08 (Shelby County) and Precinct 11-06 (Shelby County).

Result: Brent Taylor leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Tennessee 2026 election guide.