Upset Brief · TN-07 · Darden Copeland (D) vs. Matt Van Epps (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 18.4-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
42,708
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 03-8 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +79. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +358
  2. 02
    Precinct 02-5 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +78. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,200 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +342
  3. 03
    Precinct 01-7 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +79. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,054 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +309
  4. 04
    Precinct 03-2 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +55. About 1,253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +247
  5. 05
    Precinct 02-4 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +57. About 1,079 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +211
  6. 06
    Precinct 19-2 (Davidson County)
    Starting line Copeland +35. 0.7% split their ticket. About 1,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175

The top 12 precincts carry 48% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    908 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Van Epps today.
    +908
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,335 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Copeland's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,430
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Copeland's way.
    +588

Plus a national shift of 18.4 points of margin (37,781 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Copeland wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Van Epps.
  2. In Precinct 03-8 (Davidson County) and Precinct 02-5 (Davidson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 18.4 points toward Copeland's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    194 precincts, R² 0.998, 31 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,467 to -13,771 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 17
    Copeland $78,689 cash on hand; Van Epps $207,954.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,274 households, 63,821 dials, about 3,344 live conversations: an estimated $7,378 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,378 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Tennessee races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Tennessee Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.