Upset Brief · TX-01 · Yolanda Prince (D) vs. Nathaniel Moran (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
119,795
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 19 (Gregg County)
    Starting line Prince +64. 1.4% split their ticket. About 582 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +139
  2. 02
    Precinct 3 (Harrison County)
    Starting line Prince +70. 2.3% split their ticket. About 377 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100
  3. 03
    Precinct 34 (Nacogdoches County)
    Starting line Prince +26. 3.1% split their ticket. About 806 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +92
  4. 04
    Precinct 36 (Smith County)
    Starting line Prince +42. 2.8% split their ticket. About 496 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +90
  5. 05
    Precinct 13 (Smith County)
    Starting line Prince +84. 1.8% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  6. 06
    Precinct 20 (Gregg County)
    Starting line Prince +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 497 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +69

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,062 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moran today.
    +2,062
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,766 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Prince's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +992
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Prince's way.
    +340

Plus a national shift of 49.3 points of margin (116,401 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Prince wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moran.
  2. In Precinct 19 (Gregg County) and Precinct 3 (Harrison County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 49.3 points toward Prince's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    299 precincts, R² 0.998, 59 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -143,360 to -89,099 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Prince $394 cash on hand; Moran $777,546.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,183 households, 24,549 dials, about 1,286 live conversations: an estimated $3,855 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,855 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.