Where a dollar moves a Texas race.

Where

1. Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County) +122
   Starting line Pulido +47. 9.7% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County) +100
   Starting line Pulido +19. 6.2% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 114 (Hidalgo County) +98
   Starting line Pulido +10. 4.5% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 20 (Hidalgo County) +96
   Starting line Pulido +18. 7.8% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 151 (Hidalgo County) +96
   Starting line Pulido +26. 4.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,572
  Ticket splitters and the 5 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 7,553 leaning Pulido today.
• Mobilize +1,546
  At least 14,706 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where De La Cruz's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +397
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean De La Cruz's way.

What has to be true

1. De La Cruz wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Pulido.
2. In Precinct 1 (Aransas County) and Precinct 1A (Aransas County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 74 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  280 precincts, slope 1.090, R² 0.988, 46 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -12,991 to 13,744
• Cash on hand, June 30
  De La Cruz $2,463,323 · Pulido $1,155,936
• Call program
  14,594 households, 43,782 dials, about 2,294 live conversations and 782 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2154 (Bexar County) +219
   Starting line Stout +25. 4.3% split their ticket. About 925 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 1151 (Bexar County) +205
   Starting line Stout +22. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 1141 (Bexar County) +205
   Starting line Stout +22. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,493 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 3075 (Bexar County) +158
   Starting line Herrera +8. 4.7% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 2115 (Bexar County) +155
   Starting line Stout +12. 3.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +8,858
  Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 15,546 leaning Herrera today.
• Mobilize +1,367
  At least 35,129 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Stout's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +478
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Stout's way.

What has to be true

1. Stout wins 28 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Herrera.
2. In Precinct 1151 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1141 (Bexar County), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 57 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  352 precincts, slope 1.039, R² 0.978, 52 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,502 to 19,788
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Stout $171,373 · Herrera $309,023
• Call program
  24,067 households, 72,202 dials, about 3,783 live conversations and 1,290 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Harris County +33,097
   Starting line Talarico +23. 38,498 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 460,219 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Dallas County +18,722
   Starting line Talarico +40. 22,067 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 229,059 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Tarrant County +15,919
   Starting line Talarico +10. 19,105 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 235,372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Bexar County +13,603
   Starting line Talarico +28. 17,898 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 220,034 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
5. Travis County +11,874
   Starting line Talarico +59. 15,571 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 122,904 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 52% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +161,306
  Ticket splitters and the 3 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 257,221 leaning Talarico today.
• Mobilize +101,757
  At least 1,213,162 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Paxton's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +15,741
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Paxton's way.

What has to be true

1. Paxton wins 31 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Talarico.
2. In the precincts Paxton's side carries in Montgomery County and Parker County, 22 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 63 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  9,533 precincts, slope 1.026, R² 0.995, 1,706 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -662,926 to 698,805
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Paxton $1,755,783 · Talarico $21,548,155
• Call program
  624,061 households, 1,872,182 dials, about 98,102 live conversations and 33,453 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 54 (Cameron County) +123
   Starting line Gonzalez +20. 5.6% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 98 (Cameron County) +120
   Starting line Gonzalez +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 3 (Cameron County) +117
   Starting line Gonzalez +4. 5.3% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 107 (Nueces County) +106
   Starting line Flores +41. 2.5% split their ticket. About 693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 100 (Cameron County) +101
   Starting line Gonzalez +7. 6.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,983
  Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 10,385 leaning Gonzalez today.
• Mobilize +398
  At least 15,589 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flores's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +188
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flores's way.

What has to be true

1. Flores wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Gonzalez.
2. In Precinct 107 (Nueces County) and Precinct 40 (Nueces County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 29 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  240 precincts, slope 1.082, R² 0.970, 55 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -10,629 to 17,785
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Flores $686,332 · Gonzalez $2,532,412
• Call program
  6,283 households, 18,850 dials, about 988 live conversations and 337 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 6 (Starr County) +207
   Starting line Cuellar +11. 11.8% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 130 (Webb County) +197
   Starting line Cuellar +19. 11.4% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 8 (Starr County) +172
   Starting line Tijerina +6. 11.1% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 3 (Zapata County) +120
   Starting line Tijerina +17. 12.9% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 9 (Starr County) +119
   Starting line even. 12.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 62% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,232
  Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,687 leaning Cuellar today.
• Mobilize +177
  At least 9,037 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Tijerina's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +88
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Tijerina's way.

What has to be true

1. Tijerina wins 8 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cuellar.
2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 15 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  268 precincts, slope 1.016, R² 0.956, 55 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -11,447 to 11,785
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Tijerina $768,188 · Cuellar $1,129,604
• Call program
  3,703 households, 11,109 dials, about 582 live conversations and 198 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1094 (Bexar County) +128
   Starting line Garcia +28. 6.8% split their ticket. About 991 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 1056 (Bexar County) +121
   Starting line Garcia +20. 6.1% split their ticket. About 1,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 4077 (Bexar County) +110
   Starting line Garcia +20. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,072 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 1060 (Bexar County) +107
   Starting line Garcia +37. 5.0% split their ticket. About 669 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 4026 (Bexar County) +103
   Starting line Garcia +38. 4.9% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,657
  3,657 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean De La Cruz today.
• Mobilize +2,547
  At least 27,818 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Garcia's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +767
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Garcia's way.

Plus a 4.5-point national shift (9,377 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Garcia wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning De La Cruz.
2. In Precinct 1094 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1060 (Bexar County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 4.5 points toward Garcia's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  296 precincts, slope 1.049, R² 0.993, 56 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,537 to 14,665
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Garcia $323,108 · De La Cruz $272,389
• Call program
  25,752 households, 77,257 dials, about 4,048 live conversations and 1,380 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 460 (Harris County) +172
   Starting line Gutierrez +36. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,026 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 353 (Harris County) +171
   Starting line Gutierrez +46. 3.8% split their ticket. About 873 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 251 (Harris County) +111
   Starting line Gutierrez +57. 1.7% split their ticket. About 502 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 354 (Harris County) +108
   Starting line Gutierrez +37. 2.8% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 381 (Harris County) +99
   Starting line Gutierrez +25. 6.0% split their ticket. About 792 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,737
  2,737 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mealer today.
• Mobilize +1,979
  At least 20,715 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gutierrez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +448
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gutierrez's way.

Plus a 11.9-point national shift (15,642 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Gutierrez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mealer.
2. In Precinct 353 (Harris County) and Precinct 460 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 11.9 points toward Gutierrez's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  178 precincts, slope 1.068, R² 0.992, 27 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,835 to -218
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Gutierrez $18,658 · Mealer $362,040
• Call program
  18,954 households, 56,863 dials, about 2,980 live conversations and 1,016 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2125 (Dallas County) +163
   Starting line Barrios +73. 3.5% split their ticket. About 547 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 55 (Collin County) +126
   Starting line Barrios +33. 3.6% split their ticket. About 706 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 2517 (Dallas County) +117
   Starting line Barrios +35. 8.9% split their ticket. About 506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 1751 (Dallas County) +109
   Starting line Barrios +14. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,058 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 2127 (Dallas County) +108
   Starting line Barrios +27. 5.4% split their ticket. About 668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,909
  3,909 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Yarbrough today.
• Mobilize +1,976
  At least 23,780 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barrios's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +918
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barrios's way.

Plus a 12.6-point national shift (29,834 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Barrios wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Yarbrough.
2. In Precinct 2125 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2053 (Dallas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 12.6 points toward Barrios's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  214 precincts, slope 1.044, R² 0.997, 43 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -57,346 to -2,273
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Barrios $6,043 · Yarbrough $125,412
• Call program
  23,613 households, 70,839 dials, about 3,712 live conversations and 1,266 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2308 (Dallas County) +124
   Starting line Burge +31. 4.6% split their ticket. About 965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 2305 (Dallas County) +99
   Starting line Burge +36. 2.1% split their ticket. About 690 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 2007 (Dallas County) +88
   Starting line Van Duyne +5. 7.5% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 2021 (Dallas County) +87
   Starting line Van Duyne +15. 6.4% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 2221 (Dallas County) +84
   Starting line Van Duyne +42. 6.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,839
  5,839 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Van Duyne today.
• Mobilize +583
  At least 7,702 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Burge's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +1,050
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Burge's way.

Plus a 13.2-point national shift (38,322 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Burge wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Van Duyne.
2. In Precinct 2308 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2305 (Dallas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 13.2 points toward Burge's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  246 precincts, slope 1.050, R² 0.987, 41 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,755 to -5,250
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Burge $37,265 · Van Duyne $2,873,013
• Call program
  15,442 households, 46,325 dials, about 2,427 live conversations and 828 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 29 (Kaufman County) +190
   Starting line Hockett +28. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 14 (Kaufman County) +160
   Starting line Hockett +17. 4.2% split their ticket. About 2,178 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 1709 (Dallas County) +126
   Starting line Hockett +36. 4.7% split their ticket. About 761 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 1742 (Dallas County) +113
   Starting line Hockett +21. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,007 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 35 (Kaufman County) +112
   Starting line Hockett +18. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,543
  3,543 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gooden today.
• Mobilize +2,225
  At least 27,028 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hockett's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +639
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hockett's way.

Plus a 17.7-point national shift (36,759 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hockett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gooden.
2. In Precinct 29 (Kaufman County) and Precinct 14 (Kaufman County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 17.7 points toward Hockett's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  230 precincts, slope 1.039, R² 0.997, 46 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,228 to -12,411
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hockett $5,129 · Gooden $1,329,417
• Call program
  24,799 households, 74,396 dials, about 3,898 live conversations and 1,329 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 231 (Travis County) +175
   Starting line Rourk +25. 9.6% split their ticket. About 321 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 230 (Travis County) +171
   Starting line Rourk +43. 7.6% split their ticket. About 379 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 253 (Travis County) +145
   Starting line Rourk +41. 3.1% split their ticket. About 875 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 380 (Travis County) +133
   Starting line Rourk +38. 6.2% split their ticket. About 341 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 290 (Travis County) +126
   Starting line Gober +1. 7.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,256
  4,256 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gober today.
• Mobilize +1,954
  At least 18,151 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rourk's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +902
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rourk's way.

Plus a 17.3-point national shift (44,995 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Rourk wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gober.
2. In Precinct 253 (Travis County) and Precinct 184 (Travis County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 17.3 points toward Rourk's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  319 precincts, slope 1.011, R² 0.998, 51 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,980 to -15,353
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Rourk $92,140 · Gober $119,627
• Call program
  20,176 households, 60,527 dials, about 3,172 live conversations and 1,082 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 117 (Williamson County) +187
   Starting line Shepard +42. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 301 (Williamson County) +134
   Starting line Shepard +23. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,052 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 146 (Williamson County) +131
   Starting line Shepard +38. 2.5% split their ticket. About 623 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 12 (McLennan County) +116
   Starting line Shepard +80. 0.8% split their ticket. About 389 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 189 (Williamson County) +111
   Starting line Shepard +29. 4.4% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,358
  3,358 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sessions today.
• Mobilize +1,792
  At least 20,429 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shepard's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +862
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shepard's way.

Plus a 17.9-point national shift (42,941 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Shepard wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sessions.
2. In Precinct 117 (Williamson County) and Precinct 12 (McLennan County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 17.9 points toward Shepard's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  290 precincts, slope 1.005, R² 0.998, 45 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,017 to -14,924
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Shepard $3,145 · Sessions $933,956
• Call program
  20,429 households, 61,288 dials, about 3,211 live conversations and 1,095 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 19 (Gregg County) +139
   Starting line Prince +64. 1.4% split their ticket. About 582 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 3 (Harrison County) +100
   Starting line Prince +70. 2.3% split their ticket. About 377 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 34 (Nacogdoches County) +92
   Starting line Prince +26. 3.1% split their ticket. About 806 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 36 (Smith County) +90
   Starting line Prince +42. 2.8% split their ticket. About 496 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 13 (Smith County) +73
   Starting line Prince +84. 1.8% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,062
  2,062 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moran today.
• Mobilize +992
  At least 6,766 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Prince's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +340
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Prince's way.

Plus a 49.3-point national shift (116,401 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Prince wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moran.
2. In Precinct 19 (Gregg County) and Precinct 3 (Harrison County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 49.3 points toward Prince's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  299 precincts, slope 1.013, R² 0.998, 59 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -143,360 to -89,099
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Prince $394 · Moran $777,546
• Call program
  8,183 households, 24,549 dials, about 1,286 live conversations and 439 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1170 (Harris County) +188
   Starting line Finnie +24. 2.2% split their ticket. About 2,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 388 (Harris County) +92
   Starting line Finnie +36. 2.5% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 61 (Montgomery County) +89
   Starting line Toth +19. 5.6% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 78 (Montgomery County) +89
   Starting line Toth +31. 5.5% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 964 (Harris County) +74
   Starting line Finnie +17. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,024 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,000
  4,000 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Toth today.
• Mobilize +482
  At least 6,346 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Finnie's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +695
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Finnie's way.

Plus a 21-point national shift (50,304 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Finnie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Toth.
2. In Precinct 1170 (Harris County) and Precinct 388 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Finnie's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  157 precincts, slope 1.035, R² 0.992, 27 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,963 to -22,182
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Finnie $1,469,201 · Toth $152,935
• Call program
  11,269 households, 33,807 dials, about 1,771 live conversations and 604 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 23 (Collin County) +138
   Starting line Hunt +40. 4.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 52 (Collin County) +120
   Starting line Hunt +16. 9.6% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 179 (Collin County) +83
   Starting line Self +40. 4.8% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 153 (Collin County) +79
   Starting line Self +10. 5.1% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 50 (Collin County) +78
   Starting line Hunt +22. 5.0% split their ticket. About 607 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,429
  4,429 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Self today.
• Mobilize +380
  At least 5,339 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hunt's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +967
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hunt's way.

Plus a 20.1-point national shift (51,441 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hunt wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Self.
2. In Precinct 23 (Collin County) and Precinct 3 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.1 points toward Hunt's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  247 precincts, slope 1.049, R² 0.991, 31 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -81,173 to -21,942
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hunt $43,878 · Self $212,694
• Call program
  11,703 households, 35,108 dials, about 1,840 live conversations and 627 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 167 (Collin County) +85
   Starting line Pearce +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 34 (Collin County) +85
   Starting line Pearce +14. 3.8% split their ticket. About 601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 1032 (Denton County) +66
   Starting line Fallon +15. 4.9% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 109 (Collin County) +65
   Starting line Fallon +9. 4.6% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 250 (Collin County) +64
   Starting line Pearce +4. 6.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,253
  4,253 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fallon today.
• Mobilize +331
  At least 6,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearce's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +833
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearce's way.

Plus a 21-point national shift (55,692 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Pearce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fallon.
2. In Precinct 167 (Collin County) and Precinct 85 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Pearce's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  250 precincts, slope 1.035, R² 0.996, 51 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -86,702 to -24,969
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Pearce $2,086 · Fallon $1,097,026
• Call program
  11,790 households, 35,370 dials, about 1,853 live conversations and 632 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1054 (Ellis County) +199
   Starting line Minton +46. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,097 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 43 (Johnson County) +175
   Starting line Minton +19. 2.3% split their ticket. About 2,382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 4621 (Dallas County) +152
   Starting line Minton +35. 9.9% split their ticket. About 690 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 4608 (Dallas County) +108
   Starting line Minton +26. 6.0% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 4632 (Dallas County) +87
   Starting line Minton +27. 7.7% split their ticket. About 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,473
  3,473 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ellzey today.
• Mobilize +1,191
  At least 14,591 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Minton's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +741
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Minton's way.

Plus a 20.3-point national shift (44,805 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Minton wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ellzey.
2. In Precinct 1054 (Ellis County) and Precinct 43 (Johnson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.3 points toward Minton's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  248 precincts, slope 1.033, R² 0.994, 36 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,186 to -19,520
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Minton $13,638 · Ellzey $2,483,402
• Call program
  16,322 households, 48,967 dials, about 2,566 live conversations and 875 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 15 (Harris County) +102
   Starting line Fletcher +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 70 (Harris County) +99
   Starting line Fletcher +11. 6.8% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 86 (Harris County) +97
   Starting line Fletcher +26. 6.9% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 57 (Harris County) +97
   Starting line Fletcher +44. 7.7% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 3147 (Fort Bend County) +96
   Starting line Fletcher +19. 7.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,713
  4,713 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fletcher today.
• Mobilize +0
  At least 1 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hale's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +669
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hale's way.

Plus a 24.4-point national shift (45,854 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hale wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fletcher.
2. The national environment moves about 24.4 points toward Hale's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  169 precincts, slope 0.923, R² 0.947, 25 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,405 to -23,929
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hale $6,342 · Fletcher $1,702,706
• Call program
  7,822 households, 23,467 dials, about 1,230 live conversations and 419 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 311 (Waller County) +483
   Starting line Jones +92. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 901 (Harris County) +201
   Starting line Jones +20. 4.5% split their ticket. About 2,540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 712 (Harris County) +136
   Starting line Jones +22. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 1136 (Harris County) +133
   Starting line Jones +44. 4.6% split their ticket. About 684 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 617 (Harris County) +128
   Starting line Jones +26. 4.5% split their ticket. About 987 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 29% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,943
  2,943 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Steinmann today.
• Mobilize +2,736
  At least 31,126 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jones's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +583
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jones's way.

Plus a 24.7-point national shift (49,907 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Jones wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Steinmann.
2. In Precinct 311 (Waller County) and Precinct 901 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 24.7 points toward Jones's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  165 precincts, slope 1.042, R² 0.997, 20 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -73,694 to -26,330
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Jones $7,859 · Steinmann $122,187
• Call program
  26,686 households, 80,059 dials, about 4,195 live conversations and 1,430 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 156 (Travis County) +157
   Starting line Reynolds +30. 3.3% split their ticket. About 1,211 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 150A (Travis County) +141
   Starting line Reynolds +29. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,001 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 384 (Travis County) +134
   Starting line Reynolds +38. 5.5% split their ticket. About 444 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 162 (Travis County) +133
   Starting line Reynolds +37. 2.0% split their ticket. About 856 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 152 (Travis County) +129
   Starting line Reynolds +32. 2.5% split their ticket. About 933 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,875
  2,875 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Pfluger today.
• Mobilize +1,975
  At least 18,531 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Reynolds's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +608
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Reynolds's way.

Plus a 29.8-point national shift (62,275 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Reynolds wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Pfluger.
2. In Precinct 156 (Travis County) and Precinct 162 (Travis County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 29.8 points toward Reynolds's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  284 precincts, slope 1.013, R² 0.998, 46 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -86,336 to -38,236
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Reynolds $46,790 · Pfluger $2,881,724
• Call program
  17,953 households, 53,859 dials, about 2,822 live conversations and 962 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1120 (Tarrant County) +141
   Starting line Prilliman +77. 2.4% split their ticket. About 464 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 1723 (Tarrant County) +116
   Starting line Prilliman +32. 2.4% split their ticket. About 928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 4017 (Tarrant County) +104
   Starting line Prilliman +39. 4.8% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 4060 (Tarrant County) +93
   Starting line Prilliman +44. 3.5% split their ticket. About 412 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 4182 (Tarrant County) +78
   Starting line Goldman +6. 7.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,839
  3,839 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Goldman today.
• Mobilize +1,755
  At least 14,426 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Prilliman's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +722
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Prilliman's way.

Plus a 19.3-point national shift (41,744 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Prilliman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Goldman.
2. In Precinct 1120 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1723 (Tarrant County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 19.3 points toward Prilliman's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  275 precincts, slope 1.032, R² 0.996, 51 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,313 to -16,453
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Prilliman n/a · Goldman $1,508,861
• Call program
  16,677 households, 50,030 dials, about 2,622 live conversations and 894 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 4170 (Denton County) +325
   Starting line Nair +73. 4.4% split their ticket. About 1,055 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 4174 (Denton County) +174
   Starting line Nair +75. 4.6% split their ticket. About 584 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 4167 (Denton County) +148
   Starting line Nair +43. 2.5% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 4187 (Denton County) +129
   Starting line Nair +55. 4.8% split their ticket. About 541 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 4171 (Denton County) +126
   Starting line Nair +69. 2.7% split their ticket. About 441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,583
  2,583 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jackson today.
• Mobilize +1,304
  At least 10,108 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nair's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +479
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nair's way.

Plus a 45.1-point national shift (98,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Nair wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jackson.
2. In Precinct 4170 (Denton County) and Precinct 4174 (Denton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 45.1 points toward Nair's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  360 precincts, slope 1.022, R² 0.998, 84 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -123,604 to -73,089
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Nair $14,017 · Jackson $5,410,801
• Call program
  11,483 households, 34,448 dials, about 1,805 live conversations and 616 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2058 (Fort Bend County) +529
   Starting line Bartie +60. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,477 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 53 (Brazoria County) +201
   Starting line Bartie +48. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,038 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 79 (Brazoria County) +197
   Starting line Bartie +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,452 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 70 (Brazoria County) +196
   Starting line Bartie +31. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,534 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 63 (Brazoria County) +179
   Starting line Bartie +48. 2.5% split their ticket. About 907 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 31% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,096
  3,096 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Weber today.
• Mobilize +3,065
  At least 22,504 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bartie's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +635
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bartie's way.

Plus a 21.6-point national shift (49,695 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Bartie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Weber.
2. In Precinct 2058 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 79 (Brazoria County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 21.6 points toward Bartie's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  229 precincts, slope 1.015, R² 0.998, 53 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -76,142 to -22,871
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Bartie -$1,092 · Weber $921,878
• Call program
  21,052 households, 63,157 dials, about 3,309 live conversations and 1,128 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 203 (El Paso County) +72
   Starting line Escobar +12. 5.4% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 8 (El Paso County) +54
   Starting line Bauman +14. 4.6% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 181 (El Paso County) +42
   Starting line Escobar +4. 3.9% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 18 (El Paso County) +37
   Starting line Escobar +2. 3.6% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 126 (El Paso County) +35
   Starting line Escobar +20. 2.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,153
  2,153 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Escobar today.
• Mobilize +34
  At least 726 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bauman's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +683
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bauman's way.

Plus a 20.5-point national shift (31,618 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Bauman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Escobar.
2. In Precinct 6 (El Paso County) and Precinct 8 (El Paso County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.5 points toward Bauman's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  197 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.956, 27 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,319 to -13,658
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Bauman n/a · Escobar $270,455
• Call program
  4,818 households, 14,454 dials, about 757 live conversations and 258 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2108 (Fort Bend County) +55
   Starting line Menefee +44. 2.6% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 281 (Harris County) +55
   Starting line Menefee +26. 6.3% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 27 (Harris County) +41
   Starting line Menefee +51. 4.7% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 194 (Harris County) +40
   Starting line Menefee +60. 4.8% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 255 (Harris County) +39
   Starting line Menefee +29. 4.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,413
  2,413 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Menefee today.
• Mobilize +6
  At least 66 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whitfield's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +281
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Whitfield's way.

Plus a 56.8-point national shift (98,769 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Whitfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Menefee.
2. The national environment moves about 56.8 points toward Whitfield's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  239 precincts, slope 0.972, R² 0.986, 50 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,949 to -78,901
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Whitfield n/a · Menefee $156,016
• Call program
  3,929 households, 11,787 dials, about 618 live conversations and 211 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 8 (Lubbock County) +54
   Starting line Rable +13. 3.9% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) +53
   Starting line Rable +66. 3.1% split their ticket. About 208 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 402 (Taylor County) +52
   Starting line Sell +33. 6.4% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 20 (Lubbock County) +52
   Starting line Rable +72. 3.8% split their ticket. About 182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 153 (Lubbock County) +49
   Starting line Rable +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 255 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,682
  2,682 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sell today.
• Mobilize +261
  At least 2,709 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rable's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +365
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rable's way.

Plus a 50.8-point national shift (99,270 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Rable wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sell.
2. In Precinct 6 (Lubbock County) and Precinct 20 (Lubbock County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 50.8 points toward Rable's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  381 precincts, slope 1.015, R² 0.991, 75 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -122,074 to -76,677
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Rable $7,631 · Sell $384,766
• Call program
  6,291 households, 18,872 dials, about 989 live conversations and 337 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1111 (Bexar County) +41
   Starting line Castro +25. 4.5% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 2068 (Bexar County) +40
   Starting line Castro +15. 3.2% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 2020 (Bexar County) +36
   Starting line Castro +50. 6.0% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 4076 (Bexar County) +34
   Starting line Castro +26. 4.5% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 2088 (Bexar County) +34
   Starting line Castro +25. 3.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,038
  3,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Castro today.
• Mobilize +6
  At least 56 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Baez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +434
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Baez's way.

Plus a 32.8-point national shift (52,946 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Baez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Castro.
2. The national environment moves about 32.8 points toward Baez's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  282 precincts, slope 0.979, R² 0.958, 59 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,529 to -33,996
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Baez $21,462 · Castro $154,380
• Call program
  5,086 households, 15,259 dials, about 800 live conversations and 273 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) +272
   Starting line Hook +64. 5.6% split their ticket. About 1,100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 142 (Hays County) +222
   Starting line Hook +61. 5.2% split their ticket. About 851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 115 (Hays County) +171
   Starting line Hook +36. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,273 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 121 (Hays County) +153
   Starting line Hook +63. 3.2% split their ticket. About 597 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 140 (Hays County) +120
   Starting line Hook +60. 3.3% split their ticket. About 427 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,505
  4,505 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Teixeira today.
• Mobilize +2,299
  At least 25,047 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hook's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +991
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hook's way.

Plus a 18.3-point national shift (57,935 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hook wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Teixeira.
2. In Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) and Precinct 142 (Hays County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 18.3 points toward Hook's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  279 precincts, slope 1.035, R² 0.998, 61 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,523 to -21,081
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hook $104,069 · Teixeira $382,201
• Call program
  25,453 households, 76,360 dials, about 4,001 live conversations and 1,364 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2007 (Fort Bend County) +125
   Starting line Greene-Scott +4. 4.1% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 1006 (Fort Bend County) +124
   Starting line Nehls +27. 2.8% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 3129 (Fort Bend County) +121
   Starting line Greene-Scott +5. 4.6% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 1148A (Fort Bend County) +112
   Starting line Nehls +22. 2.8% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 772 (Harris County) +90
   Starting line Nehls +26. 5.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,096
  4,096 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Nehls today.
• Mobilize +294
  At least 5,459 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Greene-Scott's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +820
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Greene-Scott's way.

Plus a 19.9-point national shift (46,879 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Greene-Scott wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Nehls.
2. In Precinct 4040 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 4074 (Fort Bend County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 19.9 points toward Greene-Scott's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  158 precincts, slope 1.064, R² 0.993, 25 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,334 to -19,646
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Greene-Scott $127 · Nehls $23,259
• Call program
  11,036 households, 33,109 dials, about 1,735 live conversations and 592 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1734 (Tarrant County) +162
   Starting line Sims +51. 2.7% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 1831 (Tarrant County) +143
   Starting line Sims +27. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,501 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 1378 (Tarrant County) +137
   Starting line Sims +44. 2.9% split their ticket. About 746 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 1251 (Tarrant County) +131
   Starting line Sims +56. 2.3% split their ticket. About 593 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 1714 (Tarrant County) +125
   Starting line Sims +35. 2.7% split their ticket. About 823 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,098
  3,098 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Williams today.
• Mobilize +4,298
  At least 32,384 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Sims's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +665
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sims's way.

Plus a 20-point national shift (44,001 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Sims wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Williams.
2. In Precinct 1734 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1831 (Tarrant County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.0 points toward Sims's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  306 precincts, slope 1.020, R² 0.999, 60 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -69,485 to -18,246
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Sims n/a · Williams $1,076,189
• Call program
  27,931 households, 83,792 dials, about 4,391 live conversations and 1,497 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 2094 (Denton County) +119
   Starting line Shook +18. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,390 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 1047 (Denton County) +100
   Starting line Shook +15. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,161 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 1048 (Denton County) +99
   Starting line Shook +16. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,403 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 2101 (Denton County) +98
   Starting line Shook +46. 2.4% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 3127 (Denton County) +95
   Starting line Shook +38. 3.0% split their ticket. About 534 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,322
  4,322 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gill today.
• Mobilize +872
  At least 13,495 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shook's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +879
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shook's way.

Plus a 21.1-point national shift (57,876 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Shook wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gill.
2. In Precinct 2094 (Denton County) and Precinct 2101 (Denton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 21.1 points toward Shook's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  212 precincts, slope 1.025, R² 0.998, 41 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -89,514 to -26,119
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Shook $3,807 · Gill $1,411,512
• Call program
  17,009 households, 51,026 dials, about 2,674 live conversations and 912 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 337 (Travis County) +229
   Starting line Lloyd +46. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 143 (Travis County) +206
   Starting line Lloyd +45. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,153 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 483 (Travis County) +200
   Starting line Lloyd +42. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,119 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 228 (Hays County) +170
   Starting line Lloyd +24. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 348A (Travis County) +134
   Starting line Lloyd +37. 5.9% split their ticket. About 569 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,245
  3,245 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cloud today.
• Mobilize +2,773
  At least 30,504 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lloyd's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +794
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lloyd's way.

Plus a 18.3-point national shift (42,886 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Lloyd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cloud.
2. In Precinct 337 (Travis County) and Precinct 143 (Travis County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 18.3 points toward Lloyd's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  319 precincts, slope 1.030, R² 0.997, 60 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,303 to -15,811
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Lloyd $11,311 · Cloud $271,133
• Call program
  27,092 households, 81,275 dials, about 4,259 live conversations and 1,452 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 448 (Harris County) +91
   Starting line Garcia +7. 7.1% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 927 (Harris County) +87
   Starting line Garcia +19. 6.2% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 189 (Harris County) +64
   Starting line Garcia +12. 10.6% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 324 (Harris County) +63
   Starting line Garcia +2. 6.3% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 578 (Harris County) +51
   Starting line Garcia +5. 6.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,618
  2,618 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garcia today.
• Mobilize +5
  At least 36 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fierro's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +340
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Fierro's way.

Plus a 33.7-point national shift (40,777 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Fierro wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garcia.
2. The national environment moves about 33.7 points toward Fierro's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  194 precincts, slope 0.931, R² 0.968, 46 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -54,759 to -26,718
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Fierro $0 · Garcia $200,973
• Call program
  4,308 households, 12,925 dials, about 677 live conversations and 231 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 4063 (Dallas County) +38
   Starting line Haynes +54. 5.5% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 4522 (Dallas County) +38
   Starting line Haynes +29. 3.8% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 3808 (Dallas County) +37
   Starting line Haynes +40. 3.1% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 4052 (Dallas County) +33
   Starting line Haynes +44. 3.5% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 2379 (Tarrant County) +32
   Starting line Haynes +37. 3.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,375
  2,375 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Haynes today.
• Mobilize +3
  At least 26 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jackson's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +323
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jackson's way.

Plus a 49.6-point national shift (85,495 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Jackson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Haynes.
2. The national environment moves about 49.6 points toward Jackson's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  248 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.988, 62 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -105,626 to -65,479
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Jackson $1,159 · Haynes $119,776
• Call program
  3,933 households, 11,798 dials, about 618 live conversations and 211 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 414 (Bell County) +147
   Starting line Early +42. 2.4% split their ticket. About 918 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 210 (Bell County) +140
   Starting line Early +28. 1.2% split their ticket. About 1,328 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 405 (Bell County) +128
   Starting line Early +35. 1.7% split their ticket. About 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 408 (Bell County) +113
   Starting line Early +25. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,047 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 413 (Bell County) +92
   Starting line Early +21. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,085 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,181
  3,181 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carter today.
• Mobilize +1,163
  At least 14,869 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Early's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +816
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Early's way.

Plus a 20.5-point national shift (50,135 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Early wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carter.
2. In Precinct 414 (Bell County) and Precinct 210 (Bell County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.5 points toward Early's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  210 precincts, slope 1.021, R² 0.996, 31 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,628 to -21,642
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Early $17,400 · Carter $170,827
• Call program
  16,258 households, 48,775 dials, about 2,556 live conversations and 872 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 1060 (Dallas County) +84
   Starting line Allred +33. 5.0% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 2605 (Dallas County) +58
   Starting line Allred +28. 7.6% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 4079 (Dallas County) +57
   Starting line Allred +51. 4.1% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 2602 (Dallas County) +54
   Starting line Allred +27. 6.0% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 2102 (Dallas County) +51
   Starting line Allred +15. 4.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,128
  3,128 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Allred today.
• Mobilize +23
  At least 110 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gillespie's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +415
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gillespie's way.

Plus a 36.1-point national shift (54,181 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Gillespie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Allred.
2. The national environment moves about 36.1 points toward Gillespie's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  258 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.958, 63 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,501 to -36,605
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Gillespie n/a · Allred $159,887
• Call program
  5,211 households, 15,633 dials, about 819 live conversations and 279 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 50 (Brazoria County) +172
   Starting line Hart +49. 3.0% split their ticket. About 897 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 66 (Brazoria County) +170
   Starting line Hart +36. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,059 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 67 (Brazoria County) +117
   Starting line Hart +44. 2.6% split their ticket. About 648 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 257 (Harris County) +102
   Starting line Hart +34. 4.3% split their ticket. About 681 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 44 (Brazoria County) +97
   Starting line Hart +20. 3.9% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,911
  2,911 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Babin today.
• Mobilize +2,533
  At least 22,376 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hart's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +641
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hart's way.

Plus a 21.4-point national shift (47,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hart wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Babin.
2. In Precinct 50 (Brazoria County) and Precinct 66 (Brazoria County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 21.4 points toward Hart's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  302 precincts, slope 1.028, R² 0.997, 64 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -72,883 to -21,411
• Cash on hand, March 31
  Hart $0 · Babin $908,646
• Call program
  20,720 households, 62,160 dials, about 3,257 live conversations and 1,111 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 201 (Travis County) +132
   Starting line Casar +33. 9.7% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 232 (Travis County) +101
   Starting line Casar +43. 7.3% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 235 (Travis County) +91
   Starting line Casar +40. 6.6% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 236 (Travis County) +86
   Starting line Casar +44. 6.4% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 233 (Travis County) +84
   Starting line Casar +41. 6.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,679
  4,679 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Casar today.
• Mobilize +0
  There are almost no precincts Peña's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
• Consolidate +482
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peña's way.

Plus a 58.9-point national shift (157,058 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Peña wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Casar.
2. The national environment moves about 58.9 points toward Peña's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  178 precincts, slope 0.991, R² 0.964, 31 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -188,407 to -126,225
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Peña $770 · Casar $597,005
• Call program
  7,408 households, 22,224 dials, about 1,165 live conversations and 397 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 309 (Harris County) +107
   Starting line Bonck +28. 7.8% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 512 (Harris County) +103
   Starting line McDonough +15. 5.2% split their ticket. About 988 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 234 (Harris County) +100
   Starting line Bonck +21. 6.5% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 116 (Harris County) +100
   Starting line Bonck +28. 7.9% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 438 (Harris County) +89
   Starting line Bonck +26. 6.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,248
  5,248 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonck today.
• Mobilize +178
  At least 2,924 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McDonough's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +847
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDonough's way.

Plus a 18.9-point national shift (49,144 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. McDonough wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonck.
2. In Precinct 512 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 18.9 points toward McDonough's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  174 precincts, slope 1.033, R² 0.985, 30 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,661 to -18,710
• Cash on hand, June 30
  McDonough $43,939 · Bonck $89,133
• Call program
  10,930 households, 32,790 dials, about 1,718 live conversations and 586 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)