Texas · 39 federal races · 37 days left
Every Texas race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
Texas's 2026 House elections use PLANC2333, the congressional map the Legislature passed in 2025; the U.S. Supreme Court stayed a lower-court block in December 2025 and reversed it on April 27, 2026. Because the lines changed, the precinct math here uses statewide contests (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General) re-aggregated onto the new districts from Texas Legislative Council precinct data.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
39
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
2,378
net votes: the closest upset in Texas (TX-28)
37
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 19.
Pick a race
39 plans. One question each.
Texas U.S. Senate · open seat
How Ken Paxton wins
265,529 net votes to find, most of them in Harris County and Dallas County.
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TX-01 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Yolanda Prince
119,795 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 19 (Gregg County) and Precinct 3 (Harrison County).
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TX-02 · open seat
What it would take for Shaun Finnie
55,482 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1170 (Harris County) and Precinct 388 (Harris County).
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TX-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Evan Hunt
57,216 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 23 (Collin County) and Precinct 52 (Collin County).
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TX-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Jason Pearce
61,109 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 167 (Collin County) and Precinct 34 (Collin County).
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TX-05 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Chelsey Hockett
43,166 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 29 (Kaufman County) and Precinct 14 (Kaufman County).
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TX-06 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Danny Minton
50,211 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1054 (Ellis County) and Precinct 43 (Johnson County).
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TX-07 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Alexander Hale
51,235 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 15 (Harris County) and Precinct 70 (Harris County).
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TX-08 · open seat
What it would take for Laura Jones
56,168 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 311 (Waller County) and Precinct 901 (Harris County).
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TX-09 · open seat
What it would take for Leticia Gutierrez
20,806 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 460 (Harris County) and Precinct 353 (Harris County).
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TX-10 · open seat
What it would take for Caitlin Rourk
52,107 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 231 (Travis County) and Precinct 230 (Travis County).
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TX-11 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Claire Reynolds
67,733 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 156 (Travis County) and Precinct 150A (Travis County).
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TX-12 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Angela "Heli" Rodriguez Prilliman
48,061 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1120 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1723 (Tarrant County).
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TX-13 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Mark Nair
102,644 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 4170 (Denton County) and Precinct 4174 (Denton County).
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TX-14 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Thurman "Bill" Bartie
56,491 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2058 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 53 (Brazoria County).
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TX-15 · open seat
How Monica De La Cruz wins
7,158 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 90 (Hidalgo County) and Precinct 113 (Hidalgo County).
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TX-16 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Adam Bauman
34,487 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 203 (El Paso County) and Precinct 8 (El Paso County).
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TX-17 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Casey Shepard
48,953 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 117 (Williamson County) and Precinct 301 (Williamson County).
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TX-18 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ronald Whitfield
101,469 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2108 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 281 (Harris County).
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TX-19 · open seat
What it would take for Kyle Rable
102,579 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 8 (Lubbock County) and Precinct 6 (Lubbock County).
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TX-20 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Edgardo Rafael Baez
56,424 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1111 (Bexar County) and Precinct 2068 (Bexar County).
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TX-21 · open seat
What it would take for Kristin Hook
65,730 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 3149 (Bexar County) and Precinct 142 (Hays County).
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TX-22 · open seat
What it would take for Marquette Greene-Scott
52,088 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2007 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 1006 (Fort Bend County).
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TX-23 · open seat
How Katy Padilla Stout wins
10,194 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2154 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1151 (Bexar County).
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TX-24 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Kevin Burge
45,794 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2308 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2305 (Dallas County).
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TX-25 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Dione Sims
52,061 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1734 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1831 (Tarrant County).
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TX-26 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Steven Shook
63,948 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2094 (Denton County) and Precinct 1047 (Denton County).
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TX-27 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Tanya Lloyd
49,699 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 337 (Travis County) and Precinct 143 (Travis County).
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TX-28 · vs. incumbent
How Tano E. Tijerina wins
2,378 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 6 (Starr County) and Precinct 130 (Webb County).
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TX-29 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Martha Fierro
43,740 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 448 (Harris County) and Precinct 927 (Harris County).
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TX-30 · open seat
What it would take for Everett Jackson
88,196 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 4063 (Dallas County) and Precinct 4522 (Dallas County).
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TX-31 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Justin Early
55,295 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 414 (Bell County) and Precinct 210 (Bell County).
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TX-32 · open seat
What it would take for Dan Barrios
36,637 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2125 (Dallas County) and Precinct 55 (Collin County).
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TX-33 · open seat
What it would take for Patrick Gillespie
57,747 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1060 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2605 (Dallas County).
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TX-34 · vs. incumbent
How Eric Flores wins
3,399 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 54 (Cameron County) and Precinct 98 (Cameron County).
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TX-35 · open seat
How Johnny Garcia wins
16,348 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 1094 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1056 (Bexar County).
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TX-36 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Rhonda Hart
53,363 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 50 (Brazoria County) and Precinct 66 (Brazoria County).
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TX-37 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Lauren Peña
162,220 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 201 (Travis County) and Precinct 232 (Travis County).
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TX-38 · open seat
What it would take for Melissa McDonough
55,417 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 309 (Harris County) and Precinct 512 (Harris County).
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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Texas 2026 election guide.