Upset Brief · TX-10 · Caitlin Rourk (D) vs. Chris Gober (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 17.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
52,107
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 231 (Travis County)
    Starting line Rourk +25. 9.6% split their ticket. About 321 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175
  2. 02
    Precinct 230 (Travis County)
    Starting line Rourk +43. 7.6% split their ticket. About 379 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +171
  3. 03
    Precinct 253 (Travis County)
    Starting line Rourk +41. 3.1% split their ticket. About 875 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +145
  4. 04
    Precinct 380 (Travis County)
    Starting line Rourk +38. 6.2% split their ticket. About 341 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  5. 05
    Precinct 290 (Travis County)
    Starting line Gober +1. 7.4% split their ticket.
    +126
  6. 06
    Precinct 354 (Travis County)
    Starting line Rourk +29. 5.1% split their ticket. About 382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +124

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,256 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gober today.
    +4,256
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 18,151 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rourk's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,954
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rourk's way.
    +902

Plus a national shift of 17.3 points of margin (44,995 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Rourk wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gober.
  2. In Precinct 253 (Travis County) and Precinct 184 (Travis County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 17.3 points toward Rourk's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    319 precincts, R² 0.998, 51 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,980 to -15,353 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Rourk $92,140 cash on hand; Gober $119,627.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,176 households, 60,527 dials, about 3,172 live conversations: an estimated $6,997 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,997 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.