Upset Brief · TX-12 · Angela "Heli" Rodriguez Prilliman (D) vs. Craig Goldman (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
48,061
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 1120 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Prilliman +77. 2.4% split their ticket. About 464 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +141
  2. 02
    Precinct 1723 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Prilliman +32. 2.4% split their ticket. About 928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +116
  3. 03
    Precinct 4017 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Prilliman +39. 4.8% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  4. 04
    Precinct 4060 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Prilliman +44. 3.5% split their ticket. About 412 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +93
  5. 05
    Precinct 4182 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Goldman +6. 7.4% split their ticket.
    +78
  6. 06
    Precinct 1090 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Prilliman +66. 3.4% split their ticket. About 302 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +77

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,839 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Goldman today.
    +3,839
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,426 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Prilliman's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,755
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Prilliman's way.
    +722

Plus a national shift of 19.3 points of margin (41,744 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Prilliman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Goldman.
  2. In Precinct 1120 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1723 (Tarrant County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.3 points toward Prilliman's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    275 precincts, R² 0.996, 51 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,313 to -16,453 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Prilliman no FEC totals reported; Goldman $1,508,861.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,677 households, 50,030 dials, about 2,622 live conversations: an estimated $6,612 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,612 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.