Upset Brief · TX-13 · Mark Nair (D) vs. Ronny Jackson (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 45.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
102,644
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 4170 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +73. 4.4% split their ticket. About 1,055 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +325
  2. 02
    Precinct 4174 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +75. 4.6% split their ticket. About 584 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +174
  3. 03
    Precinct 4167 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +43. 2.5% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +148
  4. 04
    Precinct 4187 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +55. 4.8% split their ticket. About 541 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +129
  5. 05
    Precinct 4171 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +69. 2.7% split their ticket. About 441 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +126
  6. 06
    Precinct 4169 (Denton County)
    Starting line Nair +43. 2.3% split their ticket. About 615 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +118

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,583 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jackson today.
    +2,583
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,108 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Nair's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,304
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Nair's way.
    +479

Plus a national shift of 45.1 points of margin (98,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Nair wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jackson.
  2. In Precinct 4170 (Denton County) and Precinct 4174 (Denton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 45.1 points toward Nair's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    360 precincts, R² 0.998, 84 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -123,604 to -73,089 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Nair $14,017 cash on hand; Jackson $5,410,801.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,483 households, 34,448 dials, about 1,805 live conversations: an estimated $5,124 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,124 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.