Upset Brief · TX-14 · Thurman "Bill" Bartie (D) vs. Randy Weber (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
56,491
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2058 (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Bartie +60. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,477 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +529
  2. 02
    Precinct 53 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Bartie +48. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,038 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +201
  3. 03
    Precinct 79 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Bartie +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,452 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +197
  4. 04
    Precinct 70 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Bartie +31. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,534 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +196
  5. 05
    Precinct 63 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Bartie +48. 2.5% split their ticket. About 907 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +179
  6. 06
    Precinct 436 (Galveston County)
    Starting line Bartie +74. 1.3% split their ticket. About 594 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +165

The top 12 precincts carry 31% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,096 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Weber today.
    +3,096
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 22,504 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bartie's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,065
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bartie's way.
    +635

Plus a national shift of 21.6 points of margin (49,695 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Bartie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Weber.
  2. In Precinct 2058 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 79 (Brazoria County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.6 points toward Bartie's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    229 precincts, R² 0.998, 53 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -76,142 to -22,871 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Bartie -$1,092 cash on hand; Weber $921,878.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,052 households, 63,157 dials, about 3,309 live conversations: an estimated $7,301 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,301 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.