Upset Brief · TX-16 · Adam Bauman (R) vs. Veronica Escobar (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
34,487
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 203 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Escobar +12. 5.4% split their ticket.
    +72
  2. 02
    Precinct 8 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Bauman +14. 4.6% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +54
  3. 03
    Precinct 181 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Escobar +4. 3.9% split their ticket.
    +42
  4. 04
    Precinct 18 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Escobar +2. 3.6% split their ticket.
    +37
  5. 05
    Precinct 126 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Escobar +20. 2.8% split their ticket.
    +35
  6. 06
    Precinct 6 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Bauman +16. 1.3% split their ticket. About 422 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +35

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,153 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Escobar today.
    +2,153
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 726 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bauman's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +34
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bauman's way.
    +683

Plus a national shift of 20.5 points of margin (31,618 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Bauman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Escobar.
  2. In Precinct 6 (El Paso County) and Precinct 8 (El Paso County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.5 points toward Bauman's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    197 precincts, R² 0.956, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,319 to -13,658 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Bauman no FEC totals reported; Escobar $270,455.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,818 households, 14,454 dials, about 757 live conversations: an estimated $2,749 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,749 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.