Upset Brief · TX-17 · Casey Shepard (D) vs. Pete Sessions (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 17.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
48,953
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 117 (Williamson County)
    Starting line Shepard +42. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +187
  2. 02
    Precinct 301 (Williamson County)
    Starting line Shepard +23. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,052 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +134
  3. 03
    Precinct 146 (Williamson County)
    Starting line Shepard +38. 2.5% split their ticket. About 623 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  4. 04
    Precinct 12 (McLennan County)
    Starting line Shepard +80. 0.8% split their ticket. About 389 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +116
  5. 05
    Precinct 189 (Williamson County)
    Starting line Shepard +29. 4.4% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  6. 06
    Precinct 151 (Williamson County)
    Starting line Shepard +42. 3.3% split their ticket. About 409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,358 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sessions today.
    +3,358
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 20,429 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shepard's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,792
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shepard's way.
    +862

Plus a national shift of 17.9 points of margin (42,941 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Shepard wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sessions.
  2. In Precinct 117 (Williamson County) and Precinct 12 (McLennan County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 17.9 points toward Shepard's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    290 precincts, R² 0.998, 45 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,017 to -14,924 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Shepard $3,145 cash on hand; Sessions $933,956.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,429 households, 61,288 dials, about 3,211 live conversations: an estimated $7,085 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,085 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.