A long shot on the math: it takes a 56.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 2108 (Fort Bend County)

   Starting line Menefee +44. 2.6% split their ticket.
   +55
2. 02
   Precinct 281 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +26. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +55
3. 03
   Precinct 27 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +51. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +41
4. 04
   Precinct 194 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +60. 4.8% split their ticket.
   +40
5. 05
   Precinct 255 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +29. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +39
6. 06
   Precinct 209 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +50. 4.4% split their ticket.
   +39

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,413 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Menefee today.
  +2,413
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 66 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whitfield's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +6
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Whitfield's way.
  +281

Plus a national shift of 56.8 points of margin (98,769 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Whitfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Menefee.
2. The national environment moves about 56.8 points toward Whitfield's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  239 precincts, R² 0.986, 50 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,949 to -78,901 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Whitfield no FEC totals reported; Menefee $156,016.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,929 households, 11,787 dials, about 618 live conversations: an estimated $2,241 at published rates.