A long shot on the math: it takes a 56.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 2108 (Fort Bend County)

   Starting line Menefee +44. 2.6% split their ticket.
   +55
2. 02
   Precinct 281 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +26. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +55
3. 03
   Precinct 27 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +51. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +41
4. 04
   Precinct 194 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +60. 4.8% split their ticket.
   +40
5. 05
   Precinct 255 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +29. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +39
6. 06
   Precinct 209 (Harris County)

   Starting line Menefee +50. 4.4% split their ticket.
   +39

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,413 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Menefee today.
  +2,413
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Whitfield's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +6
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +281

Plus a national shift of 56.8 points of margin (98,769 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Whitfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Menefee.
2. It would take a national shift of about 56.8 points toward Whitfield's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  239 precincts, R² 0.986, 50 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,949 to -78,901 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Whitfield no FEC totals reported; Menefee $156,016.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,929 households, 11,787 dials, about 618 live conversations: an estimated $2,241 at published rates.