Upset Brief · TX-22 · Marquette Greene-Scott (D) vs. Trever Nehls (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
52,088
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2007 (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Greene-Scott +4. 4.1% split their ticket.
    +125
  2. 02
    Precinct 1006 (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Nehls +27. 2.8% split their ticket.
    +124
  3. 03
    Precinct 3129 (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Greene-Scott +5. 4.6% split their ticket.
    +121
  4. 04
    Precinct 1148A (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Nehls +22. 2.8% split their ticket.
    +112
  5. 05
    Precinct 772 (Harris County)
    Starting line Nehls +26. 5.7% split their ticket.
    +90
  6. 06
    Precinct 1146 (Fort Bend County)
    Starting line Nehls +9. 4.5% split their ticket.
    +89

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,096 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Nehls today.
    +4,096
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,459 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Greene-Scott's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +294
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Greene-Scott's way.
    +820

Plus a national shift of 19.9 points of margin (46,879 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Greene-Scott wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Nehls.
  2. In Precinct 4040 (Fort Bend County) and Precinct 4074 (Fort Bend County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.9 points toward Greene-Scott's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    158 precincts, R² 0.993, 25 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -74,334 to -19,646 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Greene-Scott $127 cash on hand; Nehls $23,259.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,036 households, 33,109 dials, about 1,735 live conversations: an estimated $4,924 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,924 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.