Upset Brief · TX-23 · Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R)

Stout can win. The math closes using 57 percent of what history allows.

18%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
10,194
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2154 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Stout +25. 4.3% split their ticket. About 925 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +219
  2. 02
    Precinct 1151 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Stout +22. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +205
  3. 03
    Precinct 1141 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Stout +22. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,493 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +205
  4. 04
    Precinct 3075 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Herrera +8. 4.7% split their ticket.
    +158
  5. 05
    Precinct 2115 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Stout +12. 3.7% split their ticket.
    +155
  6. 06
    Precinct 2136 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Stout +18. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +152

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 15,546 leaning Herrera today.
    +8,858
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 35,129 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Stout's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,367
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Stout's way.
    +478
What has to be true
  1. Stout wins 28 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Herrera.
  2. In Precinct 1151 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1141 (Bexar County), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 57 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    352 precincts, R² 0.978, 52 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,502 to 19,788 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Stout $171,373 cash on hand; Herrera $309,023.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,067 households, 72,202 dials, about 3,783 live conversations: an estimated $8,346 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,346 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.