Upset Brief · TX-24 · Kevin Burge (D) vs. Beth Van Duyne (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.2-point national wave.

1%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
45,794
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2308 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Burge +31. 4.6% split their ticket. About 965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +124
  2. 02
    Precinct 2305 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Burge +36. 2.1% split their ticket. About 690 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99
  3. 03
    Precinct 2007 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Van Duyne +5. 7.5% split their ticket.
    +88
  4. 04
    Precinct 2021 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Van Duyne +15. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +87
  5. 05
    Precinct 2221 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Van Duyne +42. 6.2% split their ticket.
    +84
  6. 06
    Precinct 2038 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Burge +16. 4.7% split their ticket. About 452 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,839 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Van Duyne today.
    +5,839
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,702 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Burge's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +583
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Burge's way.
    +1,050

Plus a national shift of 13.2 points of margin (38,322 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Burge wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Van Duyne.
  2. In Precinct 2308 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2305 (Dallas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.2 points toward Burge's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    246 precincts, R² 0.987, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,755 to -5,250 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Burge $37,265 cash on hand; Van Duyne $2,873,013.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,442 households, 46,325 dials, about 2,427 live conversations: an estimated $6,123 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,123 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.