Upset Brief · TX-25 · Dione Sims (D) vs. Roger Williams (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.0-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
52,061
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 1734 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +51. 2.7% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +162
  2. 02
    Precinct 1831 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +27. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,501 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +143
  3. 03
    Precinct 1378 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +44. 2.9% split their ticket. About 746 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +137
  4. 04
    Precinct 1251 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +56. 2.3% split their ticket. About 593 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  5. 05
    Precinct 1714 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +35. 2.7% split their ticket. About 823 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +125
  6. 06
    Precinct 1382 (Tarrant County)
    Starting line Sims +51. 2.9% split their ticket. About 614 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,098 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Williams today.
    +3,098
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 32,384 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Sims's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,298
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sims's way.
    +665

Plus a national shift of 20 points of margin (44,001 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Sims wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Williams.
  2. In Precinct 1734 (Tarrant County) and Precinct 1831 (Tarrant County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.0 points toward Sims's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    306 precincts, R² 0.999, 60 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -69,485 to -18,246 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Sims no FEC totals reported; Williams $1,076,189.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    27,931 households, 83,792 dials, about 4,391 live conversations: an estimated $9,340 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,340 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.