Upset Brief · TX-27 · Tanya Lloyd (D) vs. Michael Cloud (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
49,699
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 337 (Travis County)
    Starting line Lloyd +46. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +229
  2. 02
    Precinct 143 (Travis County)
    Starting line Lloyd +45. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,153 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +206
  3. 03
    Precinct 483 (Travis County)
    Starting line Lloyd +42. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,119 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +200
  4. 04
    Precinct 228 (Hays County)
    Starting line Lloyd +24. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  5. 05
    Precinct 348A (Travis County)
    Starting line Lloyd +37. 5.9% split their ticket. About 569 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +134
  6. 06
    Precinct 336 (Travis County)
    Starting line Lloyd +37. 3.0% split their ticket. About 687 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,245 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cloud today.
    +3,245
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 30,504 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lloyd's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,773
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lloyd's way.
    +794

Plus a national shift of 18.3 points of margin (42,886 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Lloyd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cloud.
  2. In Precinct 337 (Travis County) and Precinct 143 (Travis County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.3 points toward Lloyd's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    319 precincts, R² 0.997, 60 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,303 to -15,811 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Lloyd $11,311 cash on hand; Cloud $271,133.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    27,092 households, 81,275 dials, about 4,259 live conversations: an estimated $9,060 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,060 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.