A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 448 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +7. 7.1% split their ticket.
   +91
2. 02
   Precinct 927 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +19. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +87
3. 03
   Precinct 189 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +12. 10.6% split their ticket.
   +64
4. 04
   Precinct 324 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +2. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +63
5. 05
   Precinct 578 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +5. 6.5% split their ticket.
   +51
6. 06
   Precinct 366 (Harris County)

   Starting line Garcia +34. 6.4% split their ticket.
   +50

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,618 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garcia today.
  +2,618
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 36 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fierro's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +5
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Fierro's way.
  +340

Plus a national shift of 33.7 points of margin (40,777 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Fierro wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garcia.
2. The national environment moves about 33.7 points toward Fierro's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  194 precincts, R² 0.968, 46 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -54,759 to -26,718 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Fierro $0 cash on hand; Garcia $200,973.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  4,308 households, 12,925 dials, about 677 live conversations: an estimated $2,458 at published rates.