Upset Brief · TX-32 · Dan Barrios (D) vs. Jace Yarbrough (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 12.6-point national wave.

1%
odds today
4%
odds with the plan
36,637
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2125 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Barrios +73. 3.5% split their ticket. About 547 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +163
  2. 02
    Precinct 55 (Collin County)
    Starting line Barrios +33. 3.6% split their ticket. About 706 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +126
  3. 03
    Precinct 2517 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Barrios +35. 8.9% split their ticket. About 506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +117
  4. 04
    Precinct 1751 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Barrios +14. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,058 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +109
  5. 05
    Precinct 2127 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Barrios +27. 5.4% split their ticket. About 668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108
  6. 06
    Precinct 2520 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Barrios +29. 5.0% split their ticket. About 505 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +106

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,909 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Yarbrough today.
    +3,909
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,780 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barrios's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,976
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barrios's way.
    +918

Plus a national shift of 12.6 points of margin (29,834 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Barrios wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Yarbrough.
  2. In Precinct 2125 (Dallas County) and Precinct 2053 (Dallas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 12.6 points toward Barrios's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    214 precincts, R² 0.997, 43 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -57,346 to -2,273 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Barrios $6,043 cash on hand; Yarbrough $125,412.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,613 households, 70,839 dials, about 3,712 live conversations: an estimated $8,189 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,189 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.