Upset Brief · TX-35 · Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R)

Garcia gets within 9,377 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.5-point national shift finishes it.

13%
odds today
26%
odds with the plan
16,348
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 1094 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +28. 6.8% split their ticket. About 991 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
  2. 02
    Precinct 1056 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +20. 6.1% split their ticket. About 1,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +121
  3. 03
    Precinct 4077 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +20. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,072 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +110
  4. 04
    Precinct 1060 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +37. 5.0% split their ticket. About 669 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +107
  5. 05
    Precinct 4026 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +38. 4.9% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103
  6. 06
    Precinct 4200 (Bexar County)
    Starting line Garcia +28. 4.5% split their ticket. About 663 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,657 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean De La Cruz today.
    +3,657
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,818 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Garcia's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,547
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Garcia's way.
    +767

Plus a national shift of 4.5 points of margin (9,377 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Garcia wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning De La Cruz.
  2. In Precinct 1094 (Bexar County) and Precinct 1060 (Bexar County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.5 points toward Garcia's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    296 precincts, R² 0.993, 56 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,537 to 14,665 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Garcia $323,108 cash on hand; De La Cruz $272,389.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,752 households, 77,257 dials, about 4,048 live conversations: an estimated $8,611 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,611 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.