Upset Brief · TX-36 · Rhonda Hart (D) vs. Brian Babin (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.4-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
53,363
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 50 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Hart +49. 3.0% split their ticket. About 897 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +172
  2. 02
    Precinct 66 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Hart +36. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,059 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  3. 03
    Precinct 67 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Hart +44. 2.6% split their ticket. About 648 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +117
  4. 04
    Precinct 257 (Harris County)
    Starting line Hart +34. 4.3% split their ticket. About 681 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102
  5. 05
    Precinct 44 (Brazoria County)
    Starting line Hart +20. 3.9% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +97
  6. 06
    Precinct 1010 (Harris County)
    Starting line Hart +49. 4.9% split their ticket. About 470 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +94

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,911 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Babin today.
    +2,911
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 22,376 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hart's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,533
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hart's way.
    +641

Plus a national shift of 21.4 points of margin (47,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hart wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Babin.
  2. In Precinct 50 (Brazoria County) and Precinct 66 (Brazoria County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.4 points toward Hart's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    302 precincts, R² 0.997, 64 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -72,883 to -21,411 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through March 31
    Hart $0 cash on hand; Babin $908,646.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,720 households, 62,160 dials, about 3,257 live conversations: an estimated $7,186 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,186 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.