A long shot on the math: it takes a 58.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 201 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +33. 9.7% split their ticket.
   +132
2. 02
   Precinct 232 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +43. 7.3% split their ticket.
   +101
3. 03
   Precinct 235 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +40. 6.6% split their ticket.
   +91
4. 04
   Precinct 236 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +44. 6.4% split their ticket.
   +86
5. 05
   Precinct 233 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +41. 6.0% split their ticket.
   +84
6. 06
   Precinct 205 (Travis County)

   Starting line Casar +65. 4.9% split their ticket.
   +68

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,679 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Casar today.
  +4,679
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Peña's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peña's way.
  +482

Plus a national shift of 58.9 points of margin (157,058 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Peña wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Casar.
2. The national environment moves about 58.9 points toward Peña's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  178 precincts, R² 0.964, 31 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -188,407 to -126,225 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Peña $770 cash on hand; Casar $597,005.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  7,408 households, 22,224 dials, about 1,165 live conversations: an estimated $3,858 at published rates.