Upset Brief · TX-05 · Chelsey Hockett (D) vs. Lance Gooden (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 17.7-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
43,166
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 29 (Kaufman County)
    Starting line Hockett +28. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +190
  2. 02
    Precinct 14 (Kaufman County)
    Starting line Hockett +17. 4.2% split their ticket. About 2,178 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +160
  3. 03
    Precinct 1709 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Hockett +36. 4.7% split their ticket. About 761 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +126
  4. 04
    Precinct 1742 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Hockett +21. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,007 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +113
  5. 05
    Precinct 35 (Kaufman County)
    Starting line Hockett +18. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +112
  6. 06
    Precinct 3314 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Hockett +33. 3.6% split their ticket. About 668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +109

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,543 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gooden today.
    +3,543
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,028 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hockett's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,225
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hockett's way.
    +639

Plus a national shift of 17.7 points of margin (36,759 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hockett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gooden.
  2. In Precinct 29 (Kaufman County) and Precinct 14 (Kaufman County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 17.7 points toward Hockett's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    230 precincts, R² 0.997, 46 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -61,228 to -12,411 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hockett $5,129 cash on hand; Gooden $1,329,417.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,799 households, 74,396 dials, about 3,898 live conversations: an estimated $8,600 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,600 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.