Upset Brief · TX-06 · Danny Minton (D) vs. Jake Ellzey (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
50,211
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 1054 (Ellis County)
    Starting line Minton +46. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,097 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +199
  2. 02
    Precinct 43 (Johnson County)
    Starting line Minton +19. 2.3% split their ticket. About 2,382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175
  3. 03
    Precinct 4621 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Minton +35. 9.9% split their ticket. About 690 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +152
  4. 04
    Precinct 4608 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Minton +26. 6.0% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108
  5. 05
    Precinct 4632 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Minton +27. 7.7% split their ticket. About 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  6. 06
    Precinct 4627 (Dallas County)
    Starting line Minton +18. 2.5% split their ticket. About 917 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,473 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ellzey today.
    +3,473
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,591 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Minton's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,191
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Minton's way.
    +741

Plus a national shift of 20.3 points of margin (44,805 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Minton wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ellzey.
  2. In Precinct 1054 (Ellis County) and Precinct 43 (Johnson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.3 points toward Minton's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    248 precincts, R² 0.994, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,186 to -19,520 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Minton $13,638 cash on hand; Ellzey $2,483,402.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,322 households, 48,967 dials, about 2,566 live conversations: an estimated $6,472 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,472 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.