Upset Brief · TX-08 · Laura Jones (D) vs. Jessica Steinmann (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.7-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
56,168
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 311 (Waller County)
    Starting line Jones +92. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +483
  2. 02
    Precinct 901 (Harris County)
    Starting line Jones +20. 4.5% split their ticket. About 2,540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +201
  3. 03
    Precinct 712 (Harris County)
    Starting line Jones +22. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +136
  4. 04
    Precinct 1136 (Harris County)
    Starting line Jones +44. 4.6% split their ticket. About 684 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  5. 05
    Precinct 617 (Harris County)
    Starting line Jones +26. 4.5% split their ticket. About 987 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
  6. 06
    Precinct 1137 (Harris County)
    Starting line Jones +42. 4.0% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +118

The top 12 precincts carry 29% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,943 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Steinmann today.
    +2,943
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 31,126 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jones's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,736
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jones's way.
    +583

Plus a national shift of 24.7 points of margin (49,907 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jones wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Steinmann.
  2. In Precinct 311 (Waller County) and Precinct 901 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 24.7 points toward Jones's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    165 precincts, R² 0.997, 20 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -73,694 to -26,330 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Jones $7,859 cash on hand; Steinmann $122,187.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    26,686 households, 80,059 dials, about 4,195 live conversations: an estimated $8,924 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,924 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.