Upset Brief · TX-09 · Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs. Alex Mealer (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.9-point national wave.

1%
odds today
5%
odds with the plan
20,806
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 460 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +36. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,026 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +172
  2. 02
    Precinct 353 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +46. 3.8% split their ticket. About 873 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +171
  3. 03
    Precinct 251 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +57. 1.7% split their ticket. About 502 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  4. 04
    Precinct 354 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +37. 2.8% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108
  5. 05
    Precinct 381 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +25. 6.0% split their ticket. About 792 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99
  6. 06
    Precinct 380 (Harris County)
    Starting line Gutierrez +15. 3.2% split their ticket. About 953 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +94

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,737 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mealer today.
    +2,737
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 20,715 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gutierrez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,979
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gutierrez's way.
    +448

Plus a national shift of 11.9 points of margin (15,642 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Gutierrez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mealer.
  2. In Precinct 353 (Harris County) and Precinct 460 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 11.9 points toward Gutierrez's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    178 precincts, R² 0.992, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,835 to -218 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Gutierrez $18,658 cash on hand; Mealer $362,040.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,954 households, 56,863 dials, about 2,980 live conversations: an estimated $7,045 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,045 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.