A long shot on the math: it takes a 47.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   George Mason School (Alexandria city)

   Starting line Beyer +51. 9.2% split their ticket.
   +98
2. 02
   Blessed Sacrament Church (Alexandria city)

   Starting line Beyer +57. 8.7% split their ticket.
   +97
3. 03
   Mt Vernon Recreation Center (Alexandria city)

   Starting line Beyer +68. 6.5% split their ticket.
   +97
4. 04
   Haycock (Fairfax)

   Starting line Beyer +45. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +95
5. 05
   Westgate (Fairfax)

   Starting line Beyer +21. 7.5% split their ticket.
   +89
6. 06
   Precinct 124 (Arlington)

   Starting line Beyer +62. 6.7% split their ticket.
   +89

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  7,533 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Beyer today.
  +7,533
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Sabio's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sabio's way.
  +556

Plus a national shift of 47.5 points of margin (127,845 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Sabio wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Beyer.
2. The national environment moves about 47.5 points toward Sabio's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  174 precincts, R² 0.918, 31 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -159,522 to -96,423 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15

  Sabio $17,903 cash on hand; Beyer $838,934.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  11,491 households, 34,474 dials, about 1,806 live conversations: an estimated $5,127 at published rates.