Virginia · 12 federal races · election held November 3

Every Virginia race. From the other side.

The election is over. 12 of 12 races are called so far, and 2 underdogs won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Virginia's 2026 congressional elections use the 2021 court-drawn map: voters approved a redistricting amendment on April 21, 2026, but the Supreme Court of Virginia voided it on May 8 and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene on May 15.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

5,935

net votes: the closest upset in Virginia (VA-02)

underdog wins out of 12 races called so far

Pick a race

12 plans. One question each.

Virginia U.S. Senate · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Bert Mizusawa

769,760 net votes to find, most of them in Fairfax County and Loudoun County.

Result: Mark Warner won.

See the path and the result ›

VA-01 · vs. incumbent

How Shannon Taylor wins

28,321 net votes to find, most of them in Matoaka (Williamsburg city) and Tucker (Henrico).

Result: Shannon Taylor won.

See the path and the result ›

VA-02 · vs. incumbent

How Elaine Luria wins

5,935 net votes to find, most of them in John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) and Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city).

Result: Elaine Luria won.

See the path and the result ›

VA-03 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Edwin Rivera Jr.

76,422 net votes to find, most of them in Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) and Asbury (Hampton city).

Result: Bobby Scott won.

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VA-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Robert Murray Jr.

81,659 net votes to find, most of them in Templeton (Prince George) and Fourth (Colonial Heights city).

Result: Jennifer McClellan won.

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VA-05 · vs. incumbent

How Tom Perriello wins

10,147 net votes to find, most of them in Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) and University (Albemarle).

Result: John McGuire won.

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VA-06 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Beth Macy

70,444 net votes to find, most of them in Eureka Park (Roanoke city) and Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city).

Result: Ben Cline won.

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VA-07 · vs. incumbent

How Doug Ollivant wins

12,528 net votes to find, most of them in Monroe (King George) and Shiloh (King George).

Result: Eugene Vindman won.

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VA-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Tony Sabio

135,934 net votes to find, most of them in George Mason School (Alexandria city) and Blessed Sacrament Church (Alexandria city).

Result: Don Beyer won.

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VA-09 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Joy Powers

109,346 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) and Precinct F-2 (Montgomery).

Result: Morgan Griffith won.

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VA-10 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Dave Beckwith

24,793 net votes to find, most of them in Vint Hill (Fauquier) and Waterloo (Fauquier).

Result: Suhas Subramanyam won.

See the path and the result ›

VA-11 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Arthur Purves

105,230 net votes to find, most of them in Vienna #1 (Fairfax) and Orange (Fairfax).

Result: James Walkinshaw won.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Virginia 2026 election guide.