The Political Group · Virginia 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Virginia race.

12 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
VA-05
Tom Perriello vs. John McGuire
26% → 52%+26 pts10,147$6,661
17,921 households
Brief ›
VA-07
Doug Ollivant vs. Eugene Vindman
26% → 43%+17 pts12,528$9,797
30,435 households
Brief ›
VA-01
Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman
12% → 25%+13 pts28,321$10,919
33,921 households
Brief ›
VA-02
Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans
50% → 62%+12 pts5,935$6,426
16,207 households
Brief ›
VA-10
Dave Beckwith vs. Suhas Subramanyam
11% → 22%+11 pts24,793$7,301
21,053 households
Brief ›
Virginia U.S. Senate
Bert Mizusawa vs. Mark Warner
0% → 1%+1 pts769,760$168,163
611,723 households
Brief ›
VA-03
Edwin Rivera Jr. vs. Bobby Scott
0% → 0%+0 pts76,422$3,141
6,032 households
Brief ›
VA-04
Robert Murray Jr. vs. Jennifer McClellan
0% → 0%+0 pts81,659$6,568
17,669 households
Brief ›
VA-06
Beth Macy vs. Ben Cline
<1% → <1%+0 pts70,444$8,405
24,237 households
Brief ›
VA-08
Tony Sabio vs. Don Beyer
0% → 0%+0 pts135,934$5,127
11,491 households
Brief ›
VA-09
Joy Powers vs. Morgan Griffith
0% → 0%+0 pts109,346$6,912
18,596 households
Brief ›
VA-11
Arthur Purves vs. James Walkinshaw
0% → 0%+0 pts105,230$4,982
11,166 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · VA-05 · Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R) · incumbent

Perriello can win. The math closes using 40 percent of what history allows.

Odds today26%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find10,147
Call program$6,661

Where

  1. Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) +636
    Starting line Perriello +76. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. University (Albemarle) +388
    Starting line Perriello +66. 7.0% split their ticket. About 1,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Buford (Charlottesville city) +366
    Starting line Perriello +86. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Key Recreation (Charlottesville city) +358
    Starting line Perriello +83. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,224 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Walker (Charlottesville city) +309
    Starting line Perriello +76. 4.1% split their ticket. About 811 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,943
    Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 19,792 leaning McGuire today.
  • Mobilize +2,594
    At least 41,330 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Perriello's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +118
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Perriello's way.

What has to be true

  1. Perriello wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McGuire.
  2. In Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) and Buford (Charlottesville city), 14 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 40 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    328 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.996, 39 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,850 to 26,496
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Perriello $1,511,291 · McGuire $524,346
  • Call program
    17,921 households, 53,763 dials, about 2,817 live conversations and 961 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-07 · Doug Ollivant (R) vs. Eugene Vindman (D) · incumbent

Ollivant gets within 3,687 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today26%
With the plan43%
Net votes to find12,528
Call program$9,797

Where

  1. Monroe (King George) +202
    Starting line Ollivant +30. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,439 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Shiloh (King George) +191
    Starting line Ollivant +28. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Stanardsville (Greene) +152
    Starting line Ollivant +31. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania) +138
    Starting line Ollivant +16. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Brandy Station (Culpeper) +131
    Starting line Ollivant +27. 5.1% split their ticket. About 782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,866
    5,866 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Vindman today.
  • Mobilize +2,706
    At least 31,608 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ollivant's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +269
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ollivant's way.

Plus a 1.3-point national shift (3,687 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Ollivant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Vindman.
  2. In Monroe (King George) and Shiloh (King George), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 1.3 points toward Ollivant's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    203 precincts, slope 1.007, R² 0.992, 30 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -35,305 to 28,431
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Ollivant $65,801 · Vindman $6,573,093
  • Call program
    30,435 households, 91,304 dials, about 4,784 live conversations and 1,631 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-01 · Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman (R) · incumbent

Taylor gets within 16,030 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.7-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today12%
With the plan25%
Net votes to find28,321
Call program$10,919

Where

  1. Matoaka (Williamsburg city) +364
    Starting line Taylor +42. 5.7% split their ticket. About 2,088 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Tucker (Henrico) +192
    Starting line Taylor +38. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Yellow Tavern (Henrico) +174
    Starting line Taylor +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Stryker (Williamsburg city) +163
    Starting line Taylor +38. 3.6% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Sadler (Henrico) +153
    Starting line Taylor +17. 8.7% split their ticket. About 1,040 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,875
    9,875 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wittman today.
  • Mobilize +2,014
    At least 28,260 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Taylor's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +402
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Taylor's way.

Plus a 4.7-point national shift (16,030 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Taylor wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wittman.
  2. In Matoaka (Williamsburg city) and Tucker (Henrico), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.7 points toward Taylor's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    239 precincts, slope 0.985, R² 0.979, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -55,597 to 24,002
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Taylor $1,004,227 · Wittman $4,292,789
  • Call program
    33,921 households, 101,762 dials, about 5,332 live conversations and 1,818 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-02 · Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans (R) · incumbent

Luria can win. The math closes using 58 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%
With the plan62%
Net votes to find5,935
Call program$6,426

Where

  1. John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) +217
    Starting line Luria +60. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,036 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city) +161
    Starting line Luria +49. 2.3% split their ticket. About 932 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city) +154
    Starting line Luria +47. 3.0% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Booker T Washington (Suffolk city) +142
    Starting line Luria +64. 2.4% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Kings Fork (Suffolk city) +139
    Starting line Luria +35. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,154 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,758
    6,478 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiggans today.
  • Mobilize +2,098
    At least 39,364 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Luria's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +375
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Luria's way.

What has to be true

  1. Luria wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiggans.
  2. In John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) and Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 58 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    230 precincts, slope 1.019, R² 0.990, 29 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,032 to 41,049
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Luria $3,582,723 · Kiggans $3,391,740
  • Call program
    16,207 households, 48,621 dials, about 2,548 live conversations and 869 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-10 · Dave Beckwith (R) vs. Suhas Subramanyam (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.5-point national wave.

Odds today11%
With the plan22%
Net votes to find24,793
Call program$7,301

Where

  1. Vint Hill (Fauquier) +147
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Waterloo (Fauquier) +125
    Starting line Beckwith +27. 3.8% split their ticket. About 935 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. New Baltimore (Fauquier) +122
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 4.5% split their ticket. About 792 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Morrisville (Fauquier) +119
    Starting line Beckwith +36. 3.5% split their ticket. About 661 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Casanova (Fauquier) +116
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 3.5% split their ticket. About 986 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,152
    7,152 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Subramanyam today.
  • Mobilize +1,098
    At least 15,115 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beckwith's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +382
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beckwith's way.

Plus a 5.5-point national shift (16,160 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Beckwith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Subramanyam.
  2. In Vint Hill (Fauquier) and Waterloo (Fauquier), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.5 points toward Beckwith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    204 precincts, slope 1.020, R² 0.966, 37 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,264 to 17,566
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Beckwith $54,260 · Subramanyam $582,812
  • Call program
    21,053 households, 63,159 dials, about 3,310 live conversations and 1,129 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Virginia U.S. Senate · Bert Mizusawa (R) vs. Mark Warner (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find769,760
Call program$168,163

Where

  1. Fairfax County +39,692
    Starting line Warner +56. 39,217 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 187,043 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Loudoun County +15,674
    Starting line Warner +37. 15,419 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 69,654 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Virginia Beach city +15,565
    Starting line Warner +21. 15,398 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 68,037 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Prince William County +14,289
    Starting line Warner +41. 14,068 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 77,801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Chesterfield County +13,569
    Starting line Warner +29. 13,212 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 71,738 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 localities carry 47% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +283,973
    Ticket splitters and the 14 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 283,973 leaning Warner today.
  • Mobilize +32,663
    At least 309,704 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in localities where Mizusawa's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +3,117
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the localities that lean Mizusawa's way.

Plus a 14.8-point national shift (450,008 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Mizusawa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Warner.
  2. In the precincts Mizusawa's side carries in Hanover County and Chesterfield County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.8 points toward Mizusawa's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    2,686 precincts, slope 0.934, R² 0.989, 524 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -739,598 to -147,643
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Mizusawa $52,964 · Warner $16,114,725
  • Call program
    611,723 households, 1,835,169 dials, about 96,163 live conversations and 32,792 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-03 · Edwin Rivera Jr. (R) vs. Bobby Scott (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find76,422
Call program$3,141

Where

  1. Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) +55
    Starting line Rivera +14. 3.9% split their ticket. About 529 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Asbury (Hampton city) +53
    Starting line Scott +8. 3.8% split their ticket.
  3. Charles (Newport News city) +52
    Starting line Scott +15. 4.4% split their ticket.
  4. Chrysler Museum (Norfolk city) +52
    Starting line Scott +48. 5.9% split their ticket.
  5. Phillips (Hampton city) +51
    Starting line Scott +22. 4.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,932
    3,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scott today.
  • Mobilize +25
    At least 529 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rivera's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +123
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rivera's way.

Plus a 34.8-point national shift (72,343 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Rivera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scott.
  2. In Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 34.8 points toward Rivera's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    189 precincts, slope 0.965, R² 0.989, 22 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -96,540 to -48,351
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Rivera $1,762 · Scott $191,843
  • Call program
    6,032 households, 18,096 dials, about 948 live conversations and 323 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-04 · Robert Murray Jr. (R) vs. Jennifer McClellan (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 30.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find81,659
Call program$6,568

Where

  1. Templeton (Prince George) +171
    Starting line Murray +45. 2.4% split their ticket. About 918 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Fourth (Colonial Heights city) +145
    Starting line Murray +31. 4.9% split their ticket. About 1,077 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Fifth (Colonial Heights city) +138
    Starting line Murray +42. 4.3% split their ticket. About 729 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Bland (Prince George) +128
    Starting line Murray +21. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Church Road (Dinwiddie) +102
    Starting line Murray +55. 1.8% split their ticket. About 477 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,513
    4,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClellan today.
  • Mobilize +1,524
    At least 16,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Murray's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +128
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Murray's way.

Plus a 30.8-point national shift (75,494 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Murray wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClellan.
  2. In Templeton (Prince George) and Fourth (Colonial Heights city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 30.8 points toward Murray's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    264 precincts, slope 0.984, R² 0.993, 19 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -104,252 to -47,028
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Murray n/a · McClellan $197,426
  • Call program
    17,669 households, 53,007 dials, about 2,778 live conversations and 947 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-06 · Beth Macy (D) vs. Ben Cline (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.0-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find70,444
Call program$8,405

Where

  1. Eureka Park (Roanoke city) +198
    Starting line Macy +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 836 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) +192
    Starting line Macy +58. 4.4% split their ticket. About 906 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Forest Park (Roanoke city) +182
    Starting line Macy +52. 2.6% split their ticket. About 957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Highland (Roanoke city) +177
    Starting line Macy +39. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Peters Creek (Roanoke city) +168
    Starting line Macy +40. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,127 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,823
    5,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cline today.
  • Mobilize +2,295
    At least 22,299 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Macy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +413
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Macy's way.

Plus a 23-point national shift (61,913 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Macy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cline.
  2. In Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) and Eureka Park (Roanoke city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.0 points toward Macy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    275 precincts, slope 0.975, R² 0.994, 35 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -92,982 to -30,972
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Macy $847,470 · Cline $711,442
  • Call program
    24,237 households, 72,712 dials, about 3,810 live conversations and 1,299 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-08 · Tony Sabio (R) vs. Don Beyer (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 47.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find135,934
Call program$5,127

Where

  1. George Mason School (Alexandria city) +98
    Starting line Beyer +51. 9.2% split their ticket.
  2. Blessed Sacrament Church (Alexandria city) +97
    Starting line Beyer +57. 8.7% split their ticket.
  3. Mt Vernon Recreation Center (Alexandria city) +97
    Starting line Beyer +68. 6.5% split their ticket.
  4. Haycock (Fairfax) +95
    Starting line Beyer +45. 6.8% split their ticket.
  5. Westgate (Fairfax) +89
    Starting line Beyer +21. 7.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,533
    7,533 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Beyer today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Sabio's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +556
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Sabio's way.

Plus a 47.5-point national shift (127,845 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Sabio wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Beyer.
  2. The national environment moves about 47.5 points toward Sabio's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    174 precincts, slope 0.893, R² 0.918, 31 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -159,522 to -96,423
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Sabio $17,903 · Beyer $838,934
  • Call program
    11,491 households, 34,474 dials, about 1,806 live conversations and 616 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-09 · Joy Powers (D) vs. Morgan Griffith (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find109,346
Call program$6,912

Where

  1. Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) +179
    Starting line Powers +39. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct F-2 (Montgomery) +151
    Starting line Powers +39. 5.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct A-2 (Montgomery) +133
    Starting line Powers +39. 5.8% split their ticket. About 749 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct A-4 (Montgomery) +129
    Starting line Powers +38. 5.4% split their ticket. About 728 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct G-2 (Montgomery) +129
    Starting line Powers +34. 5.3% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,047
    7,047 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Griffith today.
  • Mobilize +1,225
    At least 12,541 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Powers's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +111
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Powers's way.

Plus a 40.4-point national shift (100,964 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Powers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Griffith.
  2. In Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) and Precinct F-2 (Montgomery), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 40.4 points toward Powers's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    395 precincts, slope 0.921, R² 0.988, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,796 to -71,810
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Powers $13,941 · Griffith $973,867
  • Call program
    18,596 households, 55,789 dials, about 2,923 live conversations and 997 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · VA-11 · Arthur Purves (R) vs. James Walkinshaw (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find105,230
Call program$4,982

Where

  1. Vienna #1 (Fairfax) +96
    Starting line Walkinshaw +40. 6.7% split their ticket.
  2. Orange (Fairfax) +90
    Starting line Walkinshaw +34. 6.6% split their ticket.
  3. Waples Mill (Fairfax) +89
    Starting line Walkinshaw +30. 6.2% split their ticket.
  4. Wolftrap (Fairfax) +85
    Starting line Walkinshaw +37. 6.6% split their ticket.
  5. Clearview (Fairfax) +83
    Starting line Walkinshaw +35. 5.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,629
    7,629 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Walkinshaw today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Purves's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +324
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Purves's way.

Plus a 33.6-point national shift (97,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Purves wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Walkinshaw.
  2. The national environment moves about 33.6 points toward Purves's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    183 precincts, slope 0.959, R² 0.914, 29 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -130,654 to -63,942
  • Cash on hand, August 27
    Purves $200 · Walkinshaw $979,176
  • Call program
    11,166 households, 33,499 dials, about 1,755 live conversations and 598 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.