Upset Brief · WA-01 · Mary Silva (R) vs. Suzan DelBene (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
77,716
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Sisco (Snohomish County)
    Starting line Silva +26. 5.7% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +31
  2. 02
    Snocade (Snohomish County)
    Starting line DelBene +10. 9.5% split their ticket.
    +30
  3. 03
    Brier 5 (Snohomish County)
    Starting line DelBene +28. 10.3% split their ticket.
    +29
  4. 04
    Medina Precinct 48-0750 (King County)
    Starting line DelBene +20. 12.5% split their ticket.
    +29
  5. 05
    Kirkland Precinct 48-3985 (King County)
    Starting line DelBene +60. 20.0% split their ticket.
    +28
  6. 06
    Echo Lake (Snohomish County)
    Starting line DelBene +1. 8.4% split their ticket.
    +28

The top 12 precincts carry 4% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,289 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DelBene today.
    +7,289
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,126 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Silva's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +237
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Silva's way.
    +372

Plus a national shift of 23.9 points of margin (69,818 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Silva wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DelBene.
  2. In Arlington 6 (Snohomish County) and Sisco (Snohomish County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.9 points toward Silva's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    799 precincts, R² 0.972, 142 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -103,222 to -35,946 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Silva $820 cash on hand; DelBene $1,109,685.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    13,640 households, 40,919 dials, about 2,144 live conversations: an estimated $5,748 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,748 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.