The Political Group · Washington 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Washington race.

10 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
WA-03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun
15% → 52%+37 pts17,190$9,894
30,735 households
Brief ›
WA-05
Carmela Conroy vs. Michael Baumgartner
12% → 33%+21 pts19,015$10,408
32,332 households
Brief ›
WA-08
Spencer Meline vs. Kim Schrier
18% → 37%+19 pts21,516$11,820
38,192 households
Brief ›
WA-06
Teresa Fox vs. Emily Randall
1% → 3%+2 pts56,968$7,107
19,120 households
Brief ›
WA-10
Chris D. Chung vs. Marilyn Strickland
1% → 3%+2 pts43,308$6,315
14,986 households
Brief ›
WA-01
Mary Silva vs. Suzan DelBene
<1% → <1%+0 pts77,716$5,748
13,640 households
Brief ›
WA-02
Edwin H. Feller vs. Rick Larsen
<1% → <1%+0 pts79,485$6,969
18,749 households
Brief ›
WA-04
John Duresky vs. Amanda McKinney
0% → <1%+0 pts70,467$5,345
12,683 households
Brief ›
WA-07
Nirav Sheth vs. Pramila Jayapal
0% → 0%+0 pts251,737$4,666
10,457 households
Brief ›
WA-09
Doug Basler vs. Adam Smith
0% → 0%+0 pts103,848$4,313
9,155 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · WA-03 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun (R)

Gluesenkamp Perez can win. The plan uses 49 percent of what history allows.

Odds today15%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find17,190
Call program$9,894

Where

  1. Precinct 953 (Clark County) +127
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +29. 4.9% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 450 (Clark County) +122
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +21. 6.0% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 964 (Clark County) +117
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +18. 5.7% split their ticket.
  4. Hillcrest (Cowlitz County) +117
    Starting line Braun +3. 7.0% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 448 (Clark County) +116
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +20. 4.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +16,464
    33,772 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Braun, plus the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +1,325
    At least 34,976 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gluesenkamp Perez's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +260
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gluesenkamp Perez's way.

What has to be true

  1. Gluesenkamp Perez wins 24 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Braun.
  2. In Precinct 953 (Clark County), 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 49 percent of what recent Washington results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    648 precincts, slope 0.937, R² 0.982, 102 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -26,982 to 29,204
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Perez $2,064,820 · Braun $1,267,035
  • Call program
    30,735 households, 92,205 dials, about 4,832 live conversations and 1,648 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-05 · Carmela Conroy (D) vs. Michael Baumgartner (R) · incumbent

Conroy gets within 6,696 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today12%
With the plan33%
Net votes to find19,015
Call program$10,408

Where

  1. Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) +73
    Starting line Conroy +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 3230 (Spokane County) +73
    Starting line Conroy +59. 8.3% split their ticket. About 162 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 3336 (Spokane County) +67
    Starting line Conroy +45. 2.9% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 3216 (Spokane County) +64
    Starting line Conroy +48. 6.2% split their ticket. About 222 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Pullman 1146 (Whitman County) +62
    Starting line Conroy +39. 9.0% split their ticket. About 190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +8,888
    8,888 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Baumgartner today.
  • Mobilize +2,966
    At least 27,752 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +465
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.

Plus a 2.1-point national shift (6,696 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Conroy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Baumgartner.
  2. In Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) and Precinct 3336 (Spokane County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Conroy's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    835 precincts, slope 0.938, R² 0.979, 131 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,759 to 20,181
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Conroy $74,463 · Baumgartner $953,784
  • Call program
    32,332 households, 96,995 dials, about 5,083 live conversations and 1,733 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-08 · Spencer Meline (R) vs. Kim Schrier (D) · incumbent

Meline gets within 7,862 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today18%
With the plan37%
Net votes to find21,516
Call program$11,820

Where

  1. Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) +68
    Starting line Meline +36. 4.5% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County) +57
    Starting line Meline +30. 5.1% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Dry Creek (Kittitas County) +56
    Starting line Meline +39. 7.1% split their ticket. About 189 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 175 (Chelan County) +56
    Starting line Meline +16. 8.3% split their ticket. About 270 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County) +55
    Starting line Meline +35. 4.5% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,332
    10,332 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schrier today.
  • Mobilize +2,788
    At least 33,159 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Meline's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +535
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Meline's way.

Plus a 2.3-point national shift (7,862 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Meline wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schrier.
  2. In Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) and Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.3 points toward Meline's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    894 precincts, slope 0.909, R² 0.983, 165 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,905 to 32,026
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Meline $89,862 · Schrier $3,508,751
  • Call program
    38,192 households, 114,575 dials, about 6,004 live conversations and 2,047 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-06 · Teresa Fox (R) vs. Emily Randall (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan3%
Net votes to find56,968
Call program$7,107

Where

  1. Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County) +49
    Starting line Randall +2. 11.1% split their ticket.
  2. CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County) +44
    Starting line Fox +23. 5.4% split their ticket. About 284 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Pickering (Mason County) +43
    Starting line Fox +15. 7.7% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) +40
    Starting line Fox +27. 3.9% split their ticket. About 268 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 27-461 (Pierce County) +39
    Starting line Randall +22. 8.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,822
    7,822 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Randall today.
  • Mobilize +736
    At least 10,805 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fox's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +441
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Fox's way.

Plus a 13.8-point national shift (47,968 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Fox wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Randall.
  2. In CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) and CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Fox's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    661 precincts, slope 0.977, R² 0.977, 140 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,698 to -7,345
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Fox $2,836 · Randall $241,631
  • Call program
    19,120 households, 57,359 dials, about 3,006 live conversations and 1,025 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-10 · Chris D. Chung (R) vs. Marilyn Strickland (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan3%
Net votes to find43,308
Call program$6,315

Where

  1. Beaver Creek (Thurston County) +49
    Starting line Chung +30. 5.1% split their ticket. About 225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 25-219 (Pierce County) +47
    Starting line Chung +15. 8.7% split their ticket. About 181 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Littlerock (Thurston County) +44
    Starting line Chung +15. 7.7% split their ticket. About 161 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. McIntosh (Thurston County) +42
    Starting line Chung +19. 5.3% split their ticket. About 251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Lacey 47 (Thurston County) +41
    Starting line Strickland +31. 7.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +6,237
    6,237 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Strickland today.
  • Mobilize +497
    At least 8,196 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Chung's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +367
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chung's way.

Plus a 13.3-point national shift (36,207 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Chung wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Strickland.
  2. In Yelm 3 (Thurston County) and Yelm 2 (Thurston County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.3 points toward Chung's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    602 precincts, slope 0.973, R² 0.977, 125 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,419 to -4,723
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Chung n/a · Strickland $677,498
  • Call program
    14,986 households, 44,957 dials, about 2,356 live conversations and 803 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-01 · Mary Silva (R) vs. Suzan DelBene (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.9-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find77,716
Call program$5,748

Where

  1. Sisco (Snohomish County) +31
    Starting line Silva +26. 5.7% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Snocade (Snohomish County) +30
    Starting line DelBene +10. 9.5% split their ticket.
  3. Brier 5 (Snohomish County) +29
    Starting line DelBene +28. 10.3% split their ticket.
  4. Medina Precinct 48-0750 (King County) +29
    Starting line DelBene +20. 12.5% split their ticket.
  5. Kirkland Precinct 48-3985 (King County) +28
    Starting line DelBene +60. 20.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 4% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,289
    7,289 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DelBene today.
  • Mobilize +237
    At least 4,126 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Silva's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +372
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Silva's way.

Plus a 23.9-point national shift (69,818 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Silva wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DelBene.
  2. In Arlington 6 (Snohomish County) and Sisco (Snohomish County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.9 points toward Silva's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    799 precincts, slope 0.946, R² 0.972, 142 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -103,222 to -35,946
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Silva $820 · DelBene $1,109,685
  • Call program
    13,640 households, 40,919 dials, about 2,144 live conversations and 731 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-02 · Edwin H. Feller (R) vs. Rick Larsen (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find79,485
Call program$6,969

Where

  1. Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) +66
    Starting line Feller +42. 4.0% split their ticket. About 352 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 609 (Whatcom County) +52
    Starting line Feller +47. 7.5% split their ticket. About 133 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 127 (Whatcom County) +48
    Starting line Feller +57. 3.5% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 603 (Whatcom County) +47
    Starting line Feller +41. 5.0% split their ticket. About 212 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 611 (Whatcom County) +44
    Starting line Feller +39. 5.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,217
    7,217 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Larsen today.
  • Mobilize +1,045
    At least 11,534 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feller's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +421
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feller's way.

Plus a 20.8-point national shift (70,802 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Feller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Larsen.
  2. In Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) and Precinct 127 (Whatcom County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.8 points toward Feller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    708 precincts, slope 0.943, R² 0.993, 109 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -109,964 to -31,246
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Feller n/a · Larsen $652,100
  • Call program
    18,749 households, 56,246 dials, about 2,947 live conversations and 1,005 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-04 · John Duresky (D) vs. Amanda McKinney (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find70,467
Call program$5,345

Where

  1. Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) +47
    Starting line Duresky +32. 3.8% split their ticket. About 370 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Mazama (Okanogan County) +42
    Starting line Duresky +64. 2.8% split their ticket. About 130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 2501 (Yakima County) +40
    Starting line Duresky +29. 5.2% split their ticket. About 324 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 109 (Klickitat County) +39
    Starting line Duresky +48. 2.8% split their ticket. About 164 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 004 (Franklin County) +38
    Starting line Duresky +22. 7.6% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,249
    5,249 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McKinney today.
  • Mobilize +505
    At least 6,287 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Duresky's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +558
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Duresky's way.

Plus a 27.2-point national shift (64,154 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Duresky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McKinney.
  2. In Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) and Precinct 2501 (Yakima County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 27.2 points toward Duresky's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    691 precincts, slope 0.911, R² 0.936, 131 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,615 to -36,897
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Duresky $34,309 · McKinney $215,447
  • Call program
    12,683 households, 38,049 dials, about 1,994 live conversations and 680 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-07 · Nirav Sheth (R) vs. Pramila Jayapal (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 69.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find251,737
Call program$4,666

Where

  1. Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County) +45
    Starting line Jayapal +16. 16.5% split their ticket.
  2. Seattle Precinct 46-2266 (King County) +40
    Starting line Jayapal +30. 20.5% split their ticket.
  3. Seattle Precinct 43-1819 (King County) +30
    Starting line Jayapal +54. 16.2% split their ticket.
  4. Seattle Precinct 46-1959 (King County) +29
    Starting line Jayapal +55. 10.2% split their ticket.
  5. Burien Precinct 33-1057 (King County) +28
    Starting line Jayapal +41. 9.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,329
    7,329 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jayapal today.
  • Mobilize +0
    Few precincts give Sheth's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +174
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 69.2-point national shift (244,234 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Sheth wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jayapal.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 69.2 points toward Sheth's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    1,075 precincts, slope 1.048, R² 0.857, 137 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -284,727 to -203,862
  • Cash on hand
    Sheth $5,044 · Jayapal $1,766,786
  • Call program
    10,457 households, 31,370 dials, about 1,644 live conversations and 561 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · WA-09 · Doug Basler (R) vs. Adam Smith (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find103,848
Call program$4,313

Where

  1. Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County) +32
    Starting line Smith +27. 11.6% split their ticket.
  2. Bellevue Precinct 41-2556 (King County) +29
    Starting line Smith +26. 11.0% split their ticket.
  3. Mercer Island Precinct 41-0793 (King County) +28
    Starting line Smith +52. 12.3% split their ticket.
  4. Bellevue Precinct 41-2429 (King County) +27
    Starting line Smith +36. 9.8% split their ticket.
  5. Federal Way Precinct 30-3017 (King County) +27
    Starting line Smith +25. 9.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,844
    5,844 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Smith today.
  • Mobilize +32
    Few precincts give Basler's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +328
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 39.9-point national shift (97,644 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Basler wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Smith.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 39.9 points toward Basler's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    840 precincts, slope 0.982, R² 0.989, 137 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -126,365 to -69,107
  • Cash on hand, July 15
    Basler $5,021 · Smith $869,549
  • Call program
    9,155 households, 27,465 dials, about 1,439 live conversations and 491 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.