Upset Brief · WA-10 · Chris D. Chung (R) vs. Marilyn Strickland (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.3-point national wave.

1%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
43,308
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Beaver Creek (Thurston County)
    Starting line Chung +30. 5.1% split their ticket. About 225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +49
  2. 02
    Precinct 25-219 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Chung +15. 8.7% split their ticket. About 181 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +47
  3. 03
    Littlerock (Thurston County)
    Starting line Chung +15. 7.7% split their ticket. About 161 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +44
  4. 04
    McIntosh (Thurston County)
    Starting line Chung +19. 5.3% split their ticket. About 251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +42
  5. 05
    Lacey 47 (Thurston County)
    Starting line Strickland +31. 7.2% split their ticket.
    +41
  6. 06
    Precinct 28-515 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Strickland +22. 7.9% split their ticket.
    +40

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,237 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Strickland today.
    +6,237
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 8,196 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Chung's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +497
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chung's way.
    +367

Plus a national shift of 13.3 points of margin (36,207 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Chung wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Strickland.
  2. In Yelm 3 (Thurston County) and Yelm 2 (Thurston County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.3 points toward Chung's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    602 precincts, R² 0.977, 125 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,419 to -4,723 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Chung no FEC totals reported; Strickland $677,498.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    14,986 households, 44,957 dials, about 2,356 live conversations: an estimated $6,315 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.